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By Artashes Geghamyan
September 16, 2021 , 13:19 - REGNUM
The events unfolding today in the South Caucasus region cannot but cause serious concern. And, to my great regret, my worries are by no means baseless and not akin to the alarmist rhetoric into which well-known Western politicians fall when characterizing the Russian-Belarusian joint military exercises "West-2021" this topic.
In order not to be unfounded, I will give two or three examples. So, on September 14, 2021, the British The Times published an article under the headline "Great Britain: Our Fear of Putin Only Gives It Strength."
So, in the annotation for this article, we read: "The West should not be afraid of either Russian exercises or threats of an alliance with Belarus. While the West's exercises highlight Russia's alarming military superiority over NATO countries, it lacks an appetite for real confrontation with the West." This is what the author thinks. Readers' logic: whoever is not against Russia in the comments is a Russian bot!
Further more. The Süddeutsche Zeitung headlined its commentary on the West 2021 exercise: "The West must threaten with painful sanctions." Its author Daniel Broessler, in particular, writes: “No one should be sure that the Russian president does not want to finish what he started in 2014. After Ukraine itself was lost to the Russian sphere of influence, Vladimir Putin, there is still an opportunity to expand territorial conquests, improve communication with Crimea and consolidate the split of Ukraine; thanks to the recreation of the Novorossiya project in eastern Ukraine."
In its turn, the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine titled its comment as follows: "Putin is testing Biden." NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also complained about the West 2021 Russian-Belarusian military exercises, stressing:“The reality is that since the end of the Cold War, Russia has never involved the OSCE in observing the exercises. Therefore, we will be vigilant. We will be watching closely, as always, when someone conducts such a large-scale training near our borders. ”
Considering these words of the NATO Secretary General, let us draw his attention to the fact that a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, Turkey, seemingly contrary to the admonitions of the leaders of the leading NATO members, the United States and France, about the de-escalation of tension in the South Caucasus (which the ambassadors of these countries in the Republic of Armenia in its recent interviews) has consistently created an atmosphere of tension in the South Caucasus region.
Thus, last week, the Azerbaijani (and not only) mass media published information that a special group of the Turkish command was created in Baku, which will represent the Turkish armed forces in Azerbaijan. It seems that this fact speaks very eloquently about the further plans of the Turkish military mission in Azerbaijan to escalate the situation in the South Caucasus.
Another fact is noteworthy, Bakhtiyar Ersay, Yes, dear reader, the same General Ersay, who actually led the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, which unleashed a war against the Republic of Artsakh on October 27, 2020. The same General Ersay, who in the Karabakh theater of military operations carried out operational command of more than two thousand Syrian mercenary terrorists, Ersay, not without whose knowledge the use of phosphorus bombs prohibited by the UN Conventions during the Karabakh war (September - November 2020) was sanctioned.
After all, there is ample evidence of the involvement of Ersay and the senior officers of the Turkish armed forces in the direct command of the criminal actions of the Syrian mercenary terrorists, who distinguished themselves with particular cruelty.
Yes, Armenia itself cannot directly appeal to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Lynn Tracy and Jonathan Lakota, who, I repeat, recently spoke about the political line of their countries regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and who can initiate an appeal by their countries to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
At the same time, the fact that four generals were included in the Turkish military mission is suggestive. Thus, the aforementioned Turkish command will be represented by General Abdullah Gatyrchi, General Ender Guner, who will head the command headquarters, and the military attaché of the Turkish Embassy in Baku, General Zakaria Yalchin.
To make it clear to the respected readers why I mentioned the US and French ambassadors to Armenia, let me remind you that they are the ones who in their interviews more than once, whether in Yerevan or the regions of the republic, have raised the issue of the unsettledness of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Thus, at a meeting with journalists in Syunik region in August this year, the US Ambassador to Armenia Lynn Tracy stated that the consequences of the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh have not been overcome, and the conflict has not been resolved, since the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not yet been determined:“We will work as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, striving from these positions to reduce the escalation of the situation, eliminate incidents so that the remaining issues, the post-war situation and the final settlement of the remaining tasks can be considered ...
You know very well that in July I visited one of the border districts of Gegharkunik region, where incidents were registered ... I want to make it clear that we call for de-escalation of the situation in order to end the violence as soon as possible ”.
The ambassador of friendly France to Armenia Jonathan Lakot spoke (and more than once) on the topic of the unsettledness of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict even more unequivocally . So, on August 23 in an interview with the radio station "Azatutyun" ("Freedom") J. Lakot stated:"If it were not for the Russian troops, there would be no Armenians in Karabakh ... And the Karabakh issue as a whole has not been resolved. Therefore, we support the beginning of a political process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which the Minsk Group co-chairs are called to accompany ... The reality is that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh should be determined through negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. The status has not yet been determined. Until this status is determined, neither the French ambassador to Baku, nor the French ambassador to Yerevan can visit Karabakh. My colleague in Baku does not go to Shushi (unlike the ambassadors of Belarus, Georgia, Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia and a number of other countries, except for the USA, France and Russia - A.G.), just as I don’t go to Stepanakert."
We also remind readers that US President Joe Biden on March 18, 2021, in his congratulation addressed to Azerbaijani President Aliyev on the occasion of Novruz, wrote:“As the Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, we remain committed to helping the parties achieve a lasting peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and facilitating the process of reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan for a prosperous and peaceful future.”
It seems that the dear reader will agree with me that the calls for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, voiced by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the United States and France, caused a very peculiar response both in Azerbaijan and from its political guide, NATO member Turkey.
So, as reported by the Azerbaijani and Turkish media, on September 12 this year, within the framework of trilateral military cooperation, the special forces of Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan began an eight-day joint military exercise called "Three Brothers - 2021", which are designed to contribute to "further strengthening the existing ties between the three armies and helping them find new ways to combat terrorism in the region."
It must be assumed that the Azerbaijani authorities fear that more than a thousand terrorist mercenaries (out of two thousand) who took part in the Karabakh war unleashed by the Turkish-Azerbaijani military (September - November 2020) on the side of Azerbaijan, which continue to remain on the territory of the Republic of Artsakh, occupied Azerbaijan, in the future, if Azerbaijan does not obey their Turkish mentors, they can oppose the regime of the Absheron Sultan Aliyev. For a Turk remains a Turk, even if he declared himself a brother of Azerbaijan.
The commander of the Azerbaijani special forces, Lieutenant General Hikmet Mirzoev, who opened the exercises "Three Brothers - 2021" and called the press service of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry "the hero of the Patriotic War" Republic of Artsakh in September - November 2020), stating that "three countries - Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan - from time immemorial were not just friendly, but also fraternal countries"... The degree of extreme ignorance of Muallim Hikmet goes off scale, namely: Azerbaijan appeared on the political map of the world as an independent state only in May 1918, and Pakistan - in August 1947 as a result of the division of the territory of British India.
Apparently, this is a sufficient condition for the "literate Taras", in our case, General Hikmet, to use the expression "from time immemorial". It is noteworthy that Muallim Hikmet's recognition that in his speech he said that Turkey and Pakistan "from the very first day supported Baku in the 44-day counter-offensive operation launched by Azerbaijan on September 27 last year (meaning the Karabakh war, September-November 2020 ). That is, he thereby stated that in addition to Turkey and the Syrian mercenary terrorists, the Pakistani military also fought on the side of Azerbaijan," he said .
Let us remind readers that before the exercises of the special forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan "Three Brothers - 2021" on September 6 of this year. on the territory of the Kashatagh region (Lachin region, through which the corridor between Yerevan and Stepanakert passes) of Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by the Turkish-Azerbaijani military and Syrian terrorist mercenaries during the Karabakh war (September-November 2020), joint Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises started with combat shooting.
Note that in the course of the exercises, the special forces groups of these countries practiced the skills of conducting reconnaissance on terrain with difficult terrain, organizing ambushes on the roads, and also exercised in developing skills for detecting and destroying saboteurs, an imperceptible approach to a conditional enemy, and so on.
In a word, The Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises were an open preparation for unleashing a new military provocation against the Republic of Artsakh, as well as a demonstration for Armenia (not to the current authorities, the Absheron Sultan has no problems with them), its armed forces of the strong vulnerability of the Lachin corridor, which is the road to life for the Republic of Artsakh.
Summarizing the above, it can be argued that today Azerbaijan is already openly preparing for a new war not only against the Republic of Artsakh, but also prepares the ground for an invasion of the territory of the Republic of Armenia. It is precisely the creation of an appropriate information background for Azerbaijan's military aggression that frank provocations to block the 21-kilometer section of the Goris-Kapan republican road in the Syunik region serve.
Let us remind readers that in recent days, the Azerbaijani security forces on the 21-kilometer section of the Goris-Kapan highway, which they recently blocked for several days, are now stopping foreign (usually Iranian) trucks in order to take from them the transport tax and duty established by them. ... Moreover, cynicism and state banditry supported by the Absheron Sultanate have reached the point that official Baku has found an excuse for this blatant provocation, which has the goal of transferring this act of aggression into a hot phase. Official Baku found an explanation for these aggressive and hostile actions, such as:“In accordance with Article 210 of the Tax Code of Azerbaijan, vehicles of foreign countries entering and leaving the territory of Azerbaijan are subject to road tax, as well as a road duty for obtaining a permit regulating international road transport in Azerbaijan in accordance with Article 24 of the Law on state duty ".
And this action of the Absheron authorities, absolutely not supported by legal acts, was essentially taken for granted in the speech of Nikola the capitulator at the meeting of the RA National Assembly on September 15, 2021, when he answered the question of an opposition deputy about the facts of flagrant violations of the territorial integrity of Armenia by Azerbaijan.
That is, with the blessing of Pashinyan, the justification invented by Azerbaijan can be recorded in the asset of the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategists when unleashing a war against the Republic of Armenia in the future. Azerbaijan, in fact, has already extended its jurisdiction to the territory of a part of the Syunik region of the sovereign Republic of Armenia, and with the consent of the Nikol Pashinyan treacherous clique.
Actually, the author of these lines does not have to be surprised at such a course of events, since earlier, in dozens of my articles and interviews, I cited indisputable (even from the side of Pashinyan's treacherous pack) facts confirming the truth that special services from the shores of the Potomac (CIA) and Foggy Albion (MI-6) and their Turkish military-political servants, having organized a coup d'état in Armenia in April - May 2018, they committed this crime not only with the aim of surrendering NATO Turkey and its vilayet to Azerbaijan in the Republic of Artsakh, but also at least the territory of the Syunik region of the Republic of Armenia, including the 45-kilometer Meghri section of the state border of the Republic Armenia with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This will allow the Turkish-Azerbaijani strategists, and therefore their curators from across the hill, to take control of the road, connecting Nakhichevan through the Syunik region with the regions of Azerbaijan bordering Armenia and Iran.
God forbid, if such a thing happened, there is no doubt that the longed-for dream of the New Ottoman Turkish Sultan will come true. Erdogan on the implementation of the idea of pan-Turanism, (fraught with a military catastrophe on a global scale), on the way of which there was an Armenian Christian civilization wedge in the Islamic arc stretching from Gibraltar through North Africa, the Middle East, Azerbaijan, Central Asia to Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ( populated by followers of Islam) of the People's Republic of China. There is no doubt that for the sake of achieving this dream, Erdogan, and now with Pakistan together, will incite Aliyev to unleash a war by Azerbaijan against Armenia.
When mentioning Nakhichevan, dear reader, I could not help but recall the lines from the heartfelt letter of an outstanding Armenian, Honored Art Worker of the Armenian SSR, Honored Architect of the Armenian SSR, State Prize Laureate Rafael (Rafo) Israelian dated July 20, 1962, addressed to the First Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Nikita Khrushchev:“... In the very first months, the theses of the Leninist nationality policy were solemnly proclaimed by the responsible leaders of the Soviet state and the Bolshevik Party: already on December 2, 1920, at a ceremonial meeting of the Baksovet (Baku Soviet is the supreme body of power in Baku and the Baku region - A.G.) the establishment of Soviet power in Armenia comrade. Sergo Ordzhonikidze quoted the declaration of the head of the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic comrade. N. Narimanov regarding the Armenian regions of Zangezur (Syunik region of the RA - A.G.), Nakhichevan and Nagorno-Karabakh, regions that the anti-popular government of the Musavatists tried to tear away from Armenia. "
The speech of Comrade Narimanov. Narimanov says: “Take them for yourself! Take these lands for Armenia! " The head of the Republic of Azerbaijan comes out and says: "This terrible question no longer exists!" (see G. K. Ordzhonikidze. Selected speeches and articles, 1956, pp. 139−191).
And here is the declaration itself comrade. Narimanov dated 2 / XII 1920 on behalf of the Revolutionary Committee of Azerbaijan: “The territories of Zangezur and Nakhichevan districts are an inseparable part of Soviet Armenia. And the working peasantry of Nagorno-Karabakh is given the full right to self-determination "... (TsGA Arm. SSR, f 114, d.80, sheet 1.
First published in the newspaper "Communist" on December 2, 1920). And on December 4, 1920, the People's Commissariat of the Soviet State headed by Lenin solemnly confirmed on behalf of the Soviet government: “On December 1, Soviet Azerbaijan voluntarily renounces the disputed provinces and declares the transfer of Zangezur, Nakhichevan, Nagorno-Karabakh to Soviet Armenia (see I. V. Stalin, Works, vol. 4, p. 414)."
The dear reader can familiarize himself with these and other very interesting facts on this topic by reading the article under the heading "We renounce recognition: why did Nakhichevan and Nagorno-Karabakh become part of the Azerbaijan SSR?," Published on August 4, 2010 in IA REGNUM .
I will not quote from the militant speeches of the Absheron Sultan Ilham Aliyev, who never ceases to boast of the victory of the Turkish-Azerbaijani and Syrian mercenary terrorists in the Karabakh war (September - November 2020), won, in the opinion of professional military experts, to put it mildly, from - for mediocrity, and for me - betrayal by the accomplice of the Absheron Sultan, Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Vovaevich.
At the same time, it is outrageous that more than a dozen criminal cases have already been initiated with the accusation of Armenian patriots, who, over the past months, have conclusively asserted that there was a betrayal by the political leadership of the Republic of Armenia during the Karabakh war (September - November 2020). However, this is a topic for a separate analysis, and everything has its time.
I am convinced that there will be an inevitable trial over those guilty of the deaths of five thousand courageous Armenian soldiers, over those on whose conscience the broken fates of more than 10 thousand invalids of the Karabakh war, the loss of housing by more than 40 thousand residents of the Hadrut region, Shushi and other settlements occupied by Azerbaijan. -Turkish military. And there is no doubt that those guilty of this atrocity against their people will be punished with the full severity of the law.
It is no longer necessary to talk about 75% of the territory of Artsakh surrendered to the enemy, a territory, every square meter of which is stained with the blood of hundreds and thousands of Armenian patriots who died in the Nagorno-Karabakh national liberation war of 1992-1994, on whose conscience the broken fates of more than 10 thousand invalids of the Karabakh war, the loss of housing by more than 40 thousand residents of the Hadrut region, Shushi and other settlements occupied by the Azerbaijani-Turkish military clique. that those guilty of this atrocity against their people will be punished with the full severity of the law.
I did not want to end the article on a sad note, since Providence this time turned out to be supportive of Armenia and Artsakh, the Armenian people, and there is something to write about good things. Here I would like to cite an excerpt from the article "Separatist General": Kosobokov's appointment in Artsakh caused violent indignation in Azerbaijan ", published on September 10, 2021 in the Bagramyan 26 telegram channel , as follows:
“The appointment of General Mikhail Kosobokov to the post of commander of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Artsakh caused a hysterical reaction in Azerbaijan. The cause of Baku's fears is the official biography of Kosobokov. Mikhail Kosobokov served in almost all regions of the post-Soviet space, where there are problems of territorial affiliation.
In particular, the general held the post of deputy commander of the Navy in the Crimea. Prior to that, from 2015 to 2017, he served as the commander of the 7th Russian military base in Abkhazia. Until recently, Mikhail Kosobokov served as Deputy Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the RF Armed Forces, located both in the North Caucasus and South Ossetia. The aforementioned circumstance, obviously, greatly alarmed the Azerbaijani political establishment, moreover, as an opposition, and the pro-government circles.
If Azerbaijan's fears are not unfounded, then Kosobokov's appointment can be regarded as a positive message from Moscow to Yerevan, testifying to its support for the decisiveness of the Artsakh people to exist separately from the Azerbaijani regime imposed on them. The fact that Moscow perceives Artsakh as a separate state is evidenced by the recent application of the Russian Ministry of Defense for the purchase of equipment for military units in the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. As we wrote earlier, at the request of Baku and under pressure from the Azerbaijani lobby, the application was removed from the public procurement website, but the position of the RF Ministry of Defense was clearly perceived."
Let us also note that an equally hysterical reaction in Azerbaijan was caused by the statement of the former commander of the peacekeeping forces of Russia in the Republic of Artsakh, Hero of Russia, Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov on the extension of the terms of stay of the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.
So, on September 10 this year, the well-known Internet edition 1NEWS.AZ published an article by Farida Bagirova entitled “Rustam Muradov“ extended ”the terms of stay of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. Is he authorized." I will cite some excerpts from this article, namely:
Rustam Muradov, who completed his mission on September 6 as the commander of the Russian peacekeeping forces (MS) in Karabakh, told TASS that he positively assesses the work of the Russian peacekeepers. He noted that at the moment life in Karabakh is in full swing, problematic issues are gradually being resolved. "I assess (the activities of the Russian peacekeeping mission) only positively. We are assessed by the civilian population - today life in Karabakh is in full swing."
There are, of course, very complex issues, but the process is underway - the return of people, the solution of a number of problematic issues. Therefore, I think everything will be fine,” R. Muradov said. According to him, Russian peacekeepers will stay on the territory of Karabakh for five years after the conflict.
"The first five years - according to an agreement signed by the heads of three states (Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - A. G.). Subsequently, a decision will be made on the further extension (stay) of the Russian peacekeeping contingent," he said. Further in the same article, Farida-kyzy, in order to impart objectivity to his writings, states:
"During 10 months of its implementation, she (the peacekeeping mission - A.G.) was remembered mainly for humanitarian activities, Russian peacekeepers help the Armenians of Karabakh build a reservoir, accessories, bring drinking water, even take delivery (Farida-kyzy laments - A.G.)." But Azerbaijan is well aware of cases of biased or conniving attitude of peacekeepers within the framework of their immediate tasks.
There are such facts, and they do not honor the understanding by the peacekeepers of their immediate tasks (apparently, the suppression by the peacekeepers of provocations by the Azerbaijani saboteurs on the border with Shushi and in other areas occupied by the Azerbaijani military clique of the Republic of Artsakh is now regarded by the Azerbaijani side as a “conniving attitude” - A.G.).
Farids-kyzy's worries do not end there: “But this logical question (talking about the prolongation of the presence of the Russian MC in Nagorno-Karabakh - A.G.) can rightly be asked in Azerbaijan. As you know, paragraph 4 of the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020 clearly states: “The stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic the intention to terminate the application of this provision."
Then on what basis does Muradov so confidently assert the extension of the stay of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh? Is it his authority to participate in the adoption of such decisions? In this regard, I would like to state with certainty that it would not be for the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation to enter the war zone between the Turkish-Azerbaijani armed forces and Syrian mercenary terrorists, on the one hand, and the Defense Army of the Republic of Artsakh, on the other hand (due to talentless, if not to say, treacherous actions on the part of individual leaders of the Republic of Armenia), a tragedy would be inevitable, when in a matter of days the population of Nagorno-Karabakh would be subjected to genocide.
Hero of Russia, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, no doubt, was well aware of this. Undoubtedly, so was the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, when deciding to send peacekeeping forces of the RF Ministry of Defense to the war zone, being comprehensively informed about the state of affairs in the conflict zone,
As I write these lines, a story from the recent past comes to my mind. So, at the beginning of 2018, Pope Francis, receiving Turkish President Erdogan in the Vatican, presented him with a medal as a memento, which depicted an angel of peace strangling the monster of war. The outstanding pontiff, it would seem, had a presentiment and foresaw that he would present the medal to the tempting serpent, the fallen angel, that is, the devil. The Pope's angels did not stop the tempting snake in unleashing the bloody massacre in Artsakh, it was stopped by the messengers of the angel of peace - Russian peacekeepers.
Taking this opportunity, I would like to express my sincere gratitude and deep gratitude to Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, each of the 1960 Russian peacekeepers who are on the territory of the Republic of Artsakh saved by them, and wish peace to their families, Great Russia, which is rightfully considered a reliable guarantor the security of the Armenian people, the preservation of the independence of the two Armenian states - the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh.
Instead of an afterword
Dear reader, I want to hope that you will not reproach me for the fact that I want to complete my article by quoting myself, more precisely, citing lines from my other article dated August 1, 2021, published by IA REGNUM under the heading "Russia is the guarantor of preservation Republic of Artsakh." Believe me, this is not at all a manifestation of political stupidity or narcissism. So, in the annotation to this article it is written:"The geopolitical situation in the world makes the task of not the very format of declaring the belonging of a particular territory to a specific subject of international law in the form of a national state urgent, but, in my opinion, to create conditions for safe and peaceful prosperity of compactly living preserving their national identity. I see such a secure future for the Republic of Artsakh only under the protectorate of Russia."
At the same time, the information war of Azerbaijan against the Republic of Armenia, the ongoing provocations by the Absheron Sultanate on the state border of Armenia, the alternating military exercises of the Turkish-Azerbaijani-Pakistani military hawks in the border regions of Armenia and Artsakh, as close as possible to actions in a hot war, do not leave doubts that Azerbaijan is preparing the ground for the start of military aggression against the Republic of Armenia. And this war is all the more inevitable, the more persistently the collective West will escalate the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian and Belarusian-Polish-Lithuanian border.
According to Western analysts, Russia will not wage a simultaneous war on two fronts i.e. the Western and the South Caucasus. According to their calculations, the Turkish-Azerbaijani blitzkrieg will make it possible to annex the Syunik region of the RA, if not completely, then at least an area that includes a 45-kilometer section the borders of the Meghri region of Syunik region with Iran, which will allow the Turkish-Azerbaijani hawks to cut through the Zangezur corridor so longed for by them, connecting Nakhichevan and the occupied territories of Artsakh with Azerbaijan by direct communication (road and rail). The internal political situation in Armenia and the activity of the RA National Assembly of the 8th convocation, which is completely inadequate to the current mortal threat to the existence of the Armenian statehood, contribute to the implementation of these insidious plans of the Turkish and Azerbaijani strategists.
The way out of this extremely alarming situation is to initiate and conduct as soon as possible a nationwide referendum on the entry of the Republic of Armenia into the union state of Russia and Belarus. The alternative to this is war.