OPERATIONS INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (OIS) May 18th, 2026

 OPERATIONS INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (OIS) – ChCOG-05-2026

TO: ChCOG Deputy Commander; 2nd Army Corps Commander; 43rd Mountain Rifle Corps Deputy Commander
FROM: RADM Igor Kasatonov, Commander Intelligence, Chernarus Coastal Operations Group
SUBJECT: Projected Enemy Summer Offensive – Northwestern Chernarus & North Zagoria
CLASSIFICATION: SECRET//NODIS//CHCOG-INT

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

Enemy forces in two operational theaters—Northwestern Chernarus (3rd Tank Brigade sector) and North Zagoria (10th Separate Tank Brigade sector)—have used a three-week operational lull to conduct deliberate refit, reconstitution, and training. Signals intelligence (SIGINT), human intelligence (HUMINT), and captured enemy materiel indicate a coordinated enemy summer offensive is planned for both regions. Intent: fix or break through our line, accept attrition, and recapture damaged armor for reuse.

2. ENEMY ORDER OF BATTLE & CAPABILITIES

2.1 Northwestern Chernarus

• Enemy holds a fixed defensive line contested during winter operations.

• Mixed conventional force supplemented by civilian criminal command elements.

• Demonstrated high risk tolerance: willing to absorb severe losses to maintain positions.

• Receiving new armor and recovering damaged vehicles from previous battles. Repairs slow but methodical, enabling crew training cycles.

2.2 North Zagoria

• Primary adversary: Russian special operations groups.

• Past engagements costly to both sides: 4th BTR battalion’s after-action reports confirm friendly infantry losses offset by successful blunting of enemy counterattacks.

• Enemy currently reconstituting same SOF units, integrating replacement personnel and repaired armor.

3. FRIENDLY FORCE STATUS

3.1 Northwestern Chernarus – 3rd Tank Brigade

• 2nd Battalion sustained catastrophic losses (infantry and armor) during attack on village of Yalmta.

• Supporting mechanized cavalry units crippled by winter operations.

• Decision: 2nd Battalion will withdraw from line. 4th BTR Battalion will deploy in its stead.

• Assessment: BTR units offer speed and dismounted tactical flexibility but possess reduced weaponry and lighter armor. Unsuitable for prolonged direct armored confrontation. Army Corps has no viable alternative.

3.2 North Zagoria – 10th Separate Tank Brigade

• No combat operations for >3 weeks. Period used for resupply, refit, and retraining.

• Battalion and brigade staffs report improved unit proficiency.

• Army Corps, brigade, and battalion command expect to reliably defeat enemy incursions into Chernarusan territory.

4. EXPECTED ENEMY OPERATIONS (SUMMER OFFENSIVE)

• Timeline: Late spring to early summer, following completion of enemy reconstitution.

• Method: Synchronized pressure in both theaters to hold gained line and inflict punishing losses on Chernarusan armor.

• Logistics: Enemy is deliberately stockpiling repaired armor and training new crews. Slow but deliberate buildup indicates an attritional rather than breakthrough-oriented plan.

5. ASSESSMENT & RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Northwestern Chernarus – HIGH RISK

• 4th BTR Battalion is improperly matched for line-holding or counterattacks against enemy mixed armor.

• Expect heavy friendly losses if committed to sustained offensive or defensive operations without mechanized cavalry or tank support.

• Recommend: Limit 4th BTR Battalion to screening, rapid dismounted ambushes, and reserve counter-penetration roles. Request emergency reinforcement of at least one mechanized company from 2nd Army Corps reserve.

5.2 North Zagoria – CONTROLLED RISK

• 10th Tank Brigade is tactically ready. Enemy also reconstituted, but not superior.

• Most likely outcome: draw, with friendly forces inflicting disproportionate enemy losses if engagements remain in prepared defensive zones.

• Recommend: Aggressive patrolling and pre-registered artillery counter-preparation to disrupt enemy assembly areas before offensive begins. Deny enemy freedom to choose engagement tempo.

6. COMMANDER’S FINAL IMPRESSION

The enemy has used the lull more effectively than we have in Northwestern Chernarus. Our command there is improvising with unsuitable BTR light armor because heavy units are broken. In North Zagoria, we are matched. The difference in summer casualties will be determined by how many of their tanks we kill before they cross their start lines.

RADM Igor Kasatonov
Commander Intelligence, Chernarus Coastal Operations Group

DISTRIBUTION: ChCOG Deputy Commander; 2nd Army Corps Commander; 43rd Mountain Rifle Corps Deputy Commander
ACTION OFFICER: ChCOG Intel Analysis Section, LTC M. Volkov
DOCUMENT REFERENCE: ChCOG/INT/2026-02-15/OPFOR-SUMMER

COASTAL COMMAND CONFIRMS HIT LISTS, ENGINEERING PUSH IN GARMANDA AS TANK BATTLES RAGE NORTH

By Svetlana Golikova, Senior Defense Writer, Zelenogorsk Pravda

NOVIGRAD – In a terse and carefully worded press conference Monday morning at Chernarus Naval Forces Headquarters, senior military officials from the Chernarus Coastal Operations Group (ChCOG) revealed details of intensified armored combat in North Zagoria, confirmed the seizure of so-called “hit lists” by their forces, and acknowledged a new engineering deployment to the contested Garmanda region.

The briefing, held at 0700 hours, was led by Rear Admiral Igor Kasatonov, ChCOG Commander for Intelligence, who was joined by a panel of senior army and engineering officers. While the Admiral projected confidence in ongoing tank operations, his responses to questions regarding civilian targeting and future military planning were notably guarded.

ARMORED DOMINANCE, BUT AT A COST

Admiral Kasatonov opened by detailing four separate engagements over the past week involving the 10th Separate Tank Brigade. He reported that government forces had recaptured three towns—Novoselovka Pervaya, Panteleimonovka, and Volnovakha—and prevented the capture of a fourth settlement at Shirokoye.

“10th Tank Brigade maintains a dominance on the battlefield and has severely crippled the enemy in their operations,” Kasatonov said. “Our troops in North Zagoria are well trained and well supplied.”

When pressed by this reporter, Anna Rodicheva of Zelenogorsk Pravda, about heavy armor losses reported by sources at Shirokoye and Volnovakha, the Admiral offered a starkly different assessment.

“Combined losses for those two operations, irreplaceable losses, totals one,” Kasatonov replied. “The other damaged armored vehicles were quickly recovered and are being repaired.”

He declined to elaborate on broader casualty figures, stating only that losses were “expected and necessary.”

‘HIT LISTS’ CONFIRMED, NO WARNINGS FOR CIVILIANS

Galina Timchenko of Chernarus Radio Channel 1 pressed the Admiral on unverified social media reports alleging that government forces had seized documents resembling execution lists.

Kasatonov confirmed the seizure. “I can confirm that we did seize a number of hit lists,” he said. “But I cannot describe the actual detailed content. They involved local citizens, both victims and perpetrators.”

When asked whether intelligence staff had warned potential targets among the civilian population, the Admiral’s response drew a sharp line.

“Our citizens residing in these regions are very well aware of the dangers they face because of their politics, their relations, or other social factors,” Kasatonov said. “So, no, we do not want to tip off citizens about potential dangers. Our enemy monitors these conferences.”

The statement left several reporters visibly unsettled. No further details on the lists’ origins or specific targets were provided.

ENGINEERING TEAMS UNDER FIRE IN GARMANDA

The focus then shifted north. In response to media reports of fresh operations in the remote Garmanda region, Admiral Kasatonov introduced Colonel Aleksandr Polovtsev, commander of the 9th Separate Light Mountain Rifle Brigade, and Colonel Irina Volkova, ChCOG Senior Staff Engineer Analyst.

Colonel Polovtsev confirmed that his 2nd Battalion has been deployed to Garmanda, but he emphasized their mission is strictly defensive: providing security for military engineering reconnaissance.

Colonel Volkova described the challenging terrain—dense forests, no improved roads, rugged highlands—and revealed that her lightly armed engineering teams have already come under enemy fire.

“Our teams have come under enemy fire and have withdrawn simply because they are too few and very lightly armed,” Volkova said. “My engineering teams have been conducting patrols to map out the region and to get some kind of idea of what the separatists are planning.”

ARTILLERY DEPLOYMENT RAISES QUESTIONS

When Ms. Timchenko noted reports that an artillery battery from the 9th Brigade Artillery had also deployed to Garmanda—hardly a necessity for “simple engineering surveys”—Colonel Polovtsev declined to answer.

“You all know I can’t discuss operations as they are going on,” he said.

Asked directly whether artillery has already engaged the enemy, Polovtsev offered only: “No comment.”

The exchange underscored growing speculation that Garmanda may become the next flashpoint in the conflict. Separatists currently hold approximately 65% of the region’s terrain, according to Colonel Polovtsev.

INTELLIGENCE BLACKOUT

Admiral Kasatonov refused to answer any questions regarding the separatists’ future military plans for North Zagoria, citing enemy monitoring of the press conference.

“The enemy listens in, so I am fairly certain they want to know what we know,” he said. “We will not be releasing any information about how we perceive the separatists’ military plans.”

As the briefing concluded, one fact was clear: Chernarus’s military is fighting on multiple fronts, both in the tank country of North Zagoria and in the dark forests of Garmanda. But the full scope of those operations—and the true toll they are taking—remains shrouded in operational secrecy.

— Svetlana Golikova is the senior defense writer for Zelenogorsk Pravda, covering military affairs and national security.

ChCOG reveals scope of North Zagoria offensive; Warning issued on separatist resilience

 ZELENOGORSK PRAVDA

The Voice of the People Since 1956

By Svetlana Golikova
Dateline: Zelenogorsk

NOVIGRAD – In a tightly controlled press conference held Tuesday at the Chernarus Coastal Operations Group (ChCOG) headquarters in Novigrad, senior military officials disclosed details of ongoing combat operations in North Zagoria, while issuing a measured warning that separatist forces are evolving into a more formidable threat over time.

The briefing was led by ChCOG representatives, including Major General Vassily Chernyakov, Senior Staff Intelligence Analyst, and Colonel Irina Volkova, Senior Staff Engineer Analyst. However, neither this correspondent nor ChCOG permitted direct access to the briefing room. This article is instead based on the exceptional reporting of Galina Timchenko of Chernarus’s Radio Channel 1 and Anna Rodicheva, national political reporter for Zelenogorsk Pravda, both of whom were present.

The information relayed to journalists originated from senior commanders of the Chernarus 43rd Mountain Rifle Corps: Major General Sergey Gladkov, Deputy Corps Commander; Colonel Nikolai Pisarev; and Colonel Sergei Glukharev, Deputy Head of Intelligence Staff.

Major Operations Underway

General Gladkov confirmed that a major operation is currently unfolding in North Zagoria, involving elements of the 10th Tank Brigade. According to Gladkov, the brigade has been engaged in two significant clashes against separatist forces—one near the village of Kromovo and another in the outskirts of Penteleimonovka.

“In both engagements, our armored forces attacked and successfully drove out separatist units,” Gladkov stated. He added that Chernarussian forces destroyed enemy logistical trucks in the Kromovo operational vicinity  and seized documents left behind by local friendly agents via a dead drop. The nature of those documents has not been disclosed.

Intelligence Gathering and Separatist Logistics

General Gladkov attributed the military’s operational awareness to a variety of intelligence sources, “primarily from social media posts, tapped cell phone calls, and burner phones provided by the 43rd Mountain Rifle Corps intelligence staff.”

The initial intelligence, he said, indicated that separatists had developed their forces in several key areas, most notably logistics. “They were able to resupply their units and recruit new personnel, including technical and maintenance elements,” Gladkov explained.

Despite those efforts, the general assessed that the renewed separatist activity in the region has been “halting at best,” which enabled government forces to quickly gain the upper hand in urban clearing operations.

A Cautionary Note

Yet Gladkov tempered the optimistic assessment with a sharp warning. “As the separatists continue to develop their plans, their logistics, and their forces, they are liable to become much more formidable as time goes on,” he told reporters.

He also noted a troubling indicator of separatist losses: “It is interesting—and telling—that medical clinics and hospitals in regions occupied by separatist forces have been overwhelmed in the past two weeks with their wounded.”

No Reports of Pogroms

Major General Vassily Chernyakov, the ChCOG intelligence analyst, addressed concerns about civilian safety in recaptured areas. “There are no reports of pogroms against civilians committed by local levies so far,” Chernyakov said. He did not elaborate on monitoring mechanisms or what specific levies he referred to.

Colonel Irina Volkova, the engineer analyst, added technical remarks on the condition of captured separatist fortifications and logistical nodes, though she declined to comment on future offensive planning.

Press Restrictions Noted

Notably, neither Radio Channel 1’s Timchenko nor Pravda’s Rodicheva were permitted to ask follow-up questions regarding the precise location of the dead drop or the identity of the “local friendly agents” cited by General Gladkov.

The press conference concluded with a brief statement that further operational updates would be issued as conditions on the ground permit.

— Svetlana Golikova is a senior correspondent for Zelenogorsk Pravda.

CDF Forces Recover Two Civilians Imprisoned by Separatists in Yashkul'

 Zelenogorsk Pravda

The Voice of the People

By Svetlana Golikova, National Defense Correspondent

ZELENOGORSK – Forces from the 3rd Battalion, Chernarus 3rd Separate Tank Brigade, rescued two civilians who had been detained by separatists during a military operation in the village of Yashkul’ this week, military officials have confirmed.

The harrowing rescue came too late for two others, however, as the mission unfolded amidst heavy gunfire that claimed the lives of a woman and her sister, who had been held captive alongside them.

The ordeal began Wednesday night when Tatyana Boyarchuka, her husband Igor Boyarchuk, her sister, and her girlfriend Irina Vostova were traveling north in their 2019 Lada to visit in-laws in Stary Saltov. According to Tatyana, the family’s journey was violently interrupted by a separatist mobile patrol.

“We encountered very rough and very menacing armed men who were threatening to shoot Igor,” Tatyana recounted from a military field hospital, where she and her husband are recovering. “They told us they were going to hold us for evacuation to the north.”

The four armed men, traveling in a heavily armed UAZ technical, ordered the family aboard their vehicle. Three of the separatists dismounted to make room. Less than half a kilometer away, the family watched as those three men torched their car.

Blindfolded and bound upon arrival in Yashkul’, the captives were held by three guards. It was then that the interrogation of Tatiana's sister began.

“The armed men kept asking her who sent her and who her family was, but she kept repeating that we were traveling through to Stary Saltov, and no one had sent us,” Tatyana said, describing the brutal beating of her sister. “The beating lasted for three hours… I knew at that point that she was dead.”

As dawn approached, the sound of heavy gunfire erupted in the direction of the village. The CDF operation had begun.

“We got down as best we could to avoid being hit by gunfire,” Tatyana said. “Irina wasn’t so lucky. She was hit by gunfire and she died instantly.”

Colonel Igor Maltsev, commander of the 3rd Separate Tank Brigade, confirmed that the rescue of the four individuals was a specific objective of the Yashkul’ operation, but he acknowledged gaps in his unit’s situational awareness prior to the abduction.

“I reference reports from that day going back four days; no information about a civilian family traveling aboard a Lada heading north,” Col. Maltsev told this reporter. “We maintain checkpoints and routine motorized patrols throughout the area. If that family had gone through that area, we must have missed it.”

He added that standard procedure would have been to turn the family back. “Had our patrols or checkpoints encountered this family, we would have strongly advised against them traveling any further north, and we would have ordered them to drive out of the operation area.”

The military’s account has drawn sharp criticism from civilian oversight groups. Vyacheslav Komorov, a spokesman for the peace advocacy group Trees for Peace, dismissed Col. Maltsev’s statements as implausible.

“This is exemplary of how sloppily the military operates in civilian areas,” Komorov said. “Colonel Igor Maltsev didn’t know about the detention and abduction of the family? Yeah right. Members of our group can’t even get within five kilometers of their forward zone before we are ordered to turn back. There is every reason to doubt Colonel Igor Maltsev.”

The CDF has not yet commented on the discrepancy between their claimed patrol density and the family’s unimpeded journey into contested territory. An investigation into the incident is expected to be opened, though no timeline has been provided.

The surviving members of the group, Tatyana and Igor Boyarchuk, are receiving medical and psychological care. The bodies of the two deceased women have been recovered and are being repatriated to their families.

Defense forces brace for separatist offensive in northwest; Snezhniy victory hailed as turning point

 Zelenogorsk Pravda

The Voice of the People

DEFENSE FORCES BRACE FOR SEPARATIST OFFENSIVE IN NORTHWEST; SNEZHNIY VICTORY HAILED AS TURNING POINT

By Svetlana Golikova, Senior Defense Correspondent

ZELENOGORSK – Following a decisive defensive victory at Snezhniy that saw separatist armored forces repelled with minimal government casualties, military commanders are now reporting that enemy forces are massing for a major new offensive along a critical frontline axis in Northwestern Chernarus.

According to operational summaries provided to this correspondent, the line running through Bypechkovo, Yashkul’, Pshenichnoye Pole, and Yalmta—a strategic front that saw heavy fighting throughout the winter—is now the anticipated main effort for separatist forces. Intelligence gathered from unmanned aerial vehicle overflights, ground interdiction patrols, and signals monitoring confirms that the enemy is preparing to strike within the coming days.

The report, compiled by Colonel Denis Rozhkov, Deputy Head of Intelligence Staff for the 2nd Army Corps, paints a picture of an enemy that has learned from its recent failures but remains dependent on a mix of conventional armor and hastily mobilized irregulars.

A Decisive Defense at Snezhniy

The assessment follows what military analysts are calling a textbook defensive operation conducted by the 2nd Battalion of the 3rd Separate Tank Brigade at Snezhniy. There, government forces successfully repelled separatist attempts to seize the village, suffering what the report describes as a “near-zero” casualty rate among armored and infantry assets.

The same cannot be said for the attacking forces. Field counts confirmed the destruction of three T-55 tanks, two BRDM scout cars, at least two BMP infantry fighting vehicles, and two technicals. Perhaps more telling, pilot reports from Su-25 ground interdiction fighters indicated that an additional 50 percent of enemy vehicle losses were non-combat in nature—the result of mechanical breakdowns and fuel shortages.

Military intelligence attributed the enemy’s poor performance to systemic readiness failures, specifically citing difficulties in transitioning from cold-weather to warm-weather operations.

“The enemy’s mobile forces are struggling with the fundamentals,” one intelligence officer familiar with the assessment told Zelenogorsk Pravda on condition of anonymity. “What should have been a costly engagement for us instead exposed their logistical weaknesses.”

Enemy Regroups, Adds Irregulars

But that window of vulnerability may be closing. Intelligence reports indicate that separatist forces have since conducted extensive vehicle repairs and replacements, restoring their mobile strength to nearly 95 percent of nominal levels. Hundreds of tons of fuel and ammunition are reportedly moving into forward operational areas.

In a significant development, the report details that the upcoming offensive will be augmented by a large irregular component—armed civilians recruited from villages and towns in the northern regions. Intercepted communications, agent reporting, and interrogations of captured enemy personnel have confirmed the recruitment drive.

These reinforcements, described as the equivalent of approximately two platoons in size, are said to be armed primarily with AK-47 variants and scoped hunting rifles. They will advance on foot, lacking vehicles or heavy weapons of their own.

While individually no match for government mobile forces, the report assesses that these irregulars are intended to act as a “force multiplier”—fixing government units in place to create vulnerabilities for enemy armored assets to exploit.

Government Forces Prepare

In response, the 3rd Separate Tank Brigade has adopted a deliberate defensive posture. Commanders will focus on holding the Bypechkovo–Yashkul’–Pshenichnoye Pole–Yalmta line while refraining from offensive operations south of that axis. The strategy, according to the report, is designed to invite the commitment of the enemy’s best tank formations into a prepared defensive engagement.

Further reinforcing the government’s operational depth, the 2nd Army Corps has placed two additional units on heightened standby: elements of the 31st Air Assault Regiment and the 17th Separate Mechanized Cavalry Regiment. These forces will be held at the operational level, ready to launch counterattacks should the situation require.

Operations are set to commence March 26th, according to the timeline outlined in the report.

A Deliberate Approach

Colonel Rozhkov’s assessment concludes that while the enemy retains the initiative for offensive action in the region, government forces are positioned to absorb the coming assault and are prepared to respond with decisive counterstrikes.

“The coming days will test the mettle of our defensive lines,” the report states, “but with reserves at the ready and a clear understanding of enemy intentions, we are prepared to meet the threat.”

As the March 26th timeline approaches, residents of towns along the contested line are advised to remain attentive to official instructions. Military authorities have not yet announced any evacuation orders but stress that the situation remains fluid.

Svetlana Golikova is Zelenogorsk Pravda’s senior defense correspondent, covering military operations in Chernarus since 2019.

OPERATIONS REPORT for Chernarus 2nd Army Corps in Northwestern Chernarus, March 23rd, 2026

 

OPERATIONS REPORT

TO: Corps Commander, Chernarus 2nd Army Corps (MG Vadim Nabokov)
TO: Brigade Commander, 3rd Separate Tank Brigade (COL Igor Maltsev)
TO: Command ChCOG (ADM Vadim Ivanov)
TO: Commander Intelligence ChCOG (RADM Igor Kasatonov)

FROM: Colonel Denis Rozhkov, Deputy Head of Intelligence Staff, 2nd Army Corps

SUBJECT: Operations Report: Northwestern Chernarus

CLASSIFICATION: Secret

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1. BACKGROUND

Following the successful defensive operation conducted by 2nd Battalion, 3rd Separate Tank Brigade, at Snezhniy, post-operational analysis reveals a near-zero casualty rate for friendly armored and infantry assets. The task force successfully repelled separatist attempts to seize the village.

Compiled reports from the 2nd Battalion Task Force Commander, Su-25 ground interdiction pilots, and local agents indicate that enemy mobile forces sustained significant degradation. Enemy losses were attributed to a combination of effective defensive fires, mechanical breakdowns, and fuel logistics failures.

Field counts confirm the destruction of three (3) T-55 tanks, two (2) BRDM scout cars, a minimum of two (2) BMPs, and two (2) technicals. Pilot assessments indicate non-combat (mechanical/logistical) losses constituted an additional 50% of the total enemy vehicle attrition.

The engagement at Snezhniy utilized the north-south axis to facilitate enemy approach. The unexpectedly low friendly casualty rate is attributed not to enemy restraint, but to systemic readiness failures within separatist mobile forces, specifically related to the transition from cold-weather to warm-weather operations.

2. CURRENT ENEMY SITUATION

One week into renewed operations in Northwestern Chernarus, a multi-source intelligence collection effort (including UAV overflights, Su-25 patrols, and signals intelligence) has confirmed that separatist forces are planning a major offensive. The primary objective is the line Bypechkovo–Yashkul’–Pshenichnoye Pole–Yalmta, a strategic axis heavily contested during winter operations.

Enemy operational readiness has improved significantly. Vehicle repairs and replacements have restored their mobile force strength to approximately 95% of nominal levels. Electronic intelligence further confirms the movement of hundreds of tons of fuel and ammunition into forward operational areas.

3. ENEMY FORCE COMPOSITION

In addition to conventional mobile forces, the separatists intend to integrate a significant irregular component.

• Composition: The force will consist of armed civilians, primarily equipped with AK-47 variants and snipers utilizing scoped hunting rifles.

• Source: Recruitment operations, confirmed via intercepted communications, local agent reporting, and interrogation of captured enemy agents, are actively sourcing personnel from villages and towns in the northern regions.

• Characteristics:

  • Mass: The irregular contingent will add a force equivalent to approximately two (2) platoons to the attacking echelon.

  • Mobility: This element will conduct attacks by foot, lacking organic vehicles or heavy weapons.

• Role: While individually weak against mobile forces, these irregulars will function as a force multiplier, intended to fix friendly units and create vulnerabilities for exploitation by enemy armored assets.

4. FRIENDLY OPERATIONS

a. 3rd Separate Tank Brigade
The brigade command will adopt a defensive posture focused on holding the Bypechkovo–Yashkul’–Pshenichnoye Pole–Yalmta line. Offensive operations south of this line are to be withheld. This posture is designed to invite the commitment of the enemy’s best tank formations into a prepared defensive engagement.

b. 2nd Army Corps (Operational Reserve)
Corps command has directed that two (2) additional units be maintained at heightened readiness:

• Elements, 31st Air Assault Regiment

• 17th Separate Mechanized Cavalry Regiment

These forces will be available at the operational level to conduct counterattacks to restore the tactical situation or exploit any defensive success.

5. EXECUTION TIMELINE

Operations associated with this phase are scheduled to commence March 26th.

6. CONCLUSION

The enemy retains the initiative for offensive action in Northwestern Chernarus. While their mobile forces have recovered from previous logistical failures, they are now integrating a significant irregular component to augment their conventional attack. The 3rd Separate Tank Brigade is directed to assume a defensive posture to absorb and defeat the anticipated assault, with corps-level reserves prepared for decisive counterattack.

AUTHORIZED FOR RELEASE:

COLONEL DENIS ROZHKOV
Deputy Head of Intelligence Staff, 2nd Army Corps

PROPOSAL FOR OPERATION STEADFAST DEFIANCE

 PROPOSAL FOR OPERATION STEADFAST DEFIANCE

TO: CDF High Command, Southern Sector
FROM: G-3 (Operations) and G-2 (Intelligence)
DATE: [Current Date]
SUBJECT: Proposal for a Spoiling Attack in the South Zagoria Sector

1. SITUATION

a. Enemy Forces:
Separatist forces, under the operational command of a Russian captain from a headquarters established in Sinystok, have massed for a major offensive. Intelligence confirms the presence of a separatist Brigade conducting final preparations.

• Composition: The enemy force is a composite group including:

  • Conventional Armor: Medium and heavy tracked vehicles sighted moving through Vavilovo.

  • Professional Infantry: Training grounds established near Vavilovo.

  • Mercenary/Sponsor Forces: Unconfirmed reports of Iranian, Spanish-speaking, and Serbian regulars.

  • Special Operations Forces (SOF): Credible reports of Wagner Group operators and Russian Naval Infantry (Spetsnaz) presence.

  • Irregulars: Local armed civilians, potentially mobilized to battalion strength, a significant increase from previously encountered squad-level elements.

• Capabilities: The enemy can conduct combined-arms operations with artillery support and heavy armor. Their primary threat is a large-scale conventional assault supported by elite units.

• Intentions: The separatists are planning a spoiler offensive to seize the villages of Lopatino, Zabolotye, and Bogatyrka, likely to disrupt CDF defensive lines and establish a foothold before winter.

b. Friendly Forces:
CDF forces currently hold Lopatino. Local constabulary elements are conducting presence patrols but are not equipped for high-intensity conflict.

c. Civilian Considerations:
The enemy is actively using civilian populations in Lopatino and Vavilovo for intelligence gathering. We must anticipate that enemy irregulars will blend in with civilians, complicating targeting and maneuver.

2. MISSION

CDF forces will conduct a two-phase spoiling attack (Operation STEADFAST DEFIANCE) to disrupt enemy offensive preparations, destroy forward-deployed forces and logistics near Vavilovo, and secure the railway and highway crossroads northwest of the village. This operation is designed to seize the initiative and force the enemy to react to our terms.

3. EXECUTION

Concept of Operations: This operation is a deliberate, two-phased spoiling attack. The first phase is a feint to provoke a reaction and confirm enemy strength and positions. The second phase is the main effort, a decisive combined-arms assault to achieve the operation's objectives.

Phase 1: PROVOKE & DECEIVE (D-Day, H-Hour)

• Mission: A light infantry company (+) will conduct a deliberate, high-profile probe north from Lopatino.

• Tasks:

  • Engage and destroy any separatist forward security elements.

  • Simulate the beginning of a larger infantry assault.

  • Upon encountering organized resistance, or after reaching Phase Line (PL) "Iron," conduct a tactical withdrawal back to defensive positions in Lopatino.

  • Purpose: To draw enemy forces out of hiding, confirm the presence of irregulars at higher-than-expected strength, and make the enemy command in Sinystok believe the CDF main effort is an unsupported infantry attack. This will encourage them to commit their reserves prematurely.

Phase 2: DECAPITATE & DISRUPT (D-Day + 24 Hours)

• Mission: A combined-arms task force will launch a penetration attack from Lopatino, seize Vavilovo, and secure Objective "ANVIL" (the railway/highway crossroads 1km NW of Vavilovo).

• Main Effort: 1st Mechanized Battalion.

  • Tasks:

    1. Penetration: With armor and air support, break through any enemy forces reconstituted north of Lopatino. Focus on destroying the identified heavy armor assets.

    2. Seizure of Vavilovo: Clear the village of Vavilovo of enemy combatants, focusing on the logistics and training areas identified by intelligence. Rapid clearance is essential to prevent the enemy from using the town as a strongpoint.

    3. Assault to Objective ANVIL: Push immediately to secure the crossroads. This terrain is key to interdicting enemy supply lines (from Sinystok) and blocking any immediate counterattack route.

• Supporting Effort: CDF Artillery Group.

  • Tasks:

    • Provide counter-battery fire to suppress reported separatist artillery.

    • Conduct preparatory fires on Phase 2 assault routes.

    • Be prepared to deliver priority fires to defeat expected armored counterattacks.

• Air Support: CDF Air Force.

  • Tasks:

    • Provide close air support (CAS) for the seizure of Vavilovo and the advance to Objective ANVIL.

    • Conduct armed reconnaissance to the north and west to monitor enemy reinforcement routes from Sinystok.

    • Be prepared to engage high-value targets, including the reported headquarters element if it moves.

4. ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

• Supply: Priority of supply for Phase 2 will be main battle tank ammunition and anti-armor munitions to counter the expected heavy counterattacks.

• Medical: Establish a casualty collection point in Lopatino. Plan for mass casualty events given the reported presence of enemy heavy weapons.

• Personnel: Ensure all Phase 1 troops are clearly identified and briefed on the deception plan to ensure a convincing performance and a safe withdrawal.

5. COMMAND & SIGNAL

• Command Post: Main CDF Command will remain at [Current Location]. Forward Command Post will establish in Lopatino for the duration of Phase 2.

• Signal: Strict communications security (COMSEC) will be observed prior to Phase 2. Phase 1 radio traffic will be deliberately "sloppy" to feed enemy SIGINT collection as part of the deception plan.

• Succession of Command: Standard CDF protocol.

6. RISK ASSESSMENT & MITIGATION

• Risk 1 (Critical): The enemy SOF elements (Wagner, Naval Infantry) could conduct a flanking attack on our armor.

  • Mitigation: Air support and reconnaissance will maintain constant surveillance of the flanks. Reserve forces will be positioned to counter such a move.

• Risk 2 (High): Irregular forces using civilian shields in Vavilovo.

  • Mitigation: Use precision munitions where possible. Loudspeaker teams will be attached to lead elements to broadcast warnings to civilians in Russian to vacate the area. Rules of Engagement (ROE) will be reinforced.

• Risk 3 (High): The enemy headquarters in Sinystok launches an immediate, massive counterattack with all available forces before we can consolidate Objective ANVIL.

  • Mitigation: Speed is critical. We must seize the crossroads quickly and establish a strong defensive posture. Air power will be essential in attriting the second wave of enemy reinforcements before they reach our positions. Phase 1 is designed to make them overcommit.

Conclusion: Operation STEADFAST DEFIANCE directly addresses the imminent threat. By using a deception operation followed by a concentrated, combined-arms punch, we can disrupt the separatists' build-up, destroy their combat power forward, and seize key terrain, thereby regaining the initiative and securing the southern sector.