https://cont.ws/@gavrilenko90/1512008
On November 24, 2015 over Syrian territory, near the Syrian-Turkish border, a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a Russian front-line bomber Su-24, which bombed the positions of terrorist groups in the province Latakia. As a result, pilot Oleg Peshkov and serviceman Alexander Pozynich from the search and rescue service were killed, and an Mi-8 helicopter was destroyed. Navigator Konstantin Murakhtin was rescued and delivered to the Khmeimim airbase. The Turkish authorities accused Russia of violating the border and said that in this way they were protecting the Turkomans, a nation that Turkey considers to be related. Russia, in turn, accused Turkey of violating Syrian airspace and aiding terrorists.
This is a brief plot of events that froze Russian-Turkish relations for almost nine months. However, what happened after deserves a more detailed analysis. In the Russian Internet space, the opinion has long been strengthened and is being cultivated that Russia did not answer in any way for the destroyed equipment and the dead servicemen, fearing a full-scale war with NATO. But let's not get emotional and try to take a sober look at the facts.
An important aspect that needs to be taken into account is that the shooting down of the Su-24 was an ordinary provocation and a pre-planned action. Moreover, the Turks contradict themselves, declaring a violation of the airspace for a few seconds and immediately providing allegedly records with the controllers' demands to change the course lasting more than five minutes. Be that as it may, it is impossible to shoot down a plane that has violated the border for a few seconds (according to the Turks themselves), unless you wait for it in advance. And you can't go anywhere with professional shooting of a fall. But this crime looks even more despicable and cynical against the background of statements in 2012 by then Turkish President Abdullah Gul after Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 fighter:
"It is a common practice for combat aircraft to sometimes cross and leave [state] borders, given their speed over the sea. These things are not bad intentions, they just happen due to the difficulty of controlling the speeds of jet aircraft."
But the stolen Syrian oil and the greed for profit turned the head of the Turkish leadership. So much so that it turned into real accomplices of terrorism. Other facts indicate that the destruction of the Su-24 was deliberate and planned. For example, on January 29, 2016, Turkey accused Russia of the Su-34 violating its airspace. But the accusations were all limited: it's not the Su-24 to shoot down from an ambush, and the 34 can snap back much more seriously. Moreover, in the same January 2016, Russian fighters somewhat defiantly violated the border over border crossings - there is at least one video on the network. Do you think anyone took off to intercept?
Another important aspect that many people overlook. Remember what Erdogan said about the incident? That in this way he defended the Turkomans. So, he did not protect anyone. The Turkomans continued to bomb on the same day, even with even greater intensity. Actually, this is all you need to know about making rash decisions in geopolitics and the impossibility of their implementation.
This is all well and good, the reader will say. But where is the bombed out Istanbul, the defeated Turkish army?
The main thing that should be understood and understood is that neither the Soviet Union nor Russia almost never answered OPEN and DIRECTLY. The Americans shot down our planes many times, including two Tu-95s at different times near the AUG, and this always ended in nothing except the battle over Sakhalin in 1983. The same when the peaceful South Korean Boeing-747 was allegedly shot down. It's not in our tradition to cut from the shoulder. But this does not mean that there was absolutely no answer. As you know, revenge is a dish that is served cold.
And the military-political leadership of Russia prepared it perfectly. Now we are not talking about the notorious tomatoes, which in individuals who are not endowed with intelligence cause characteristic short sounds caused by intermittent rhythmic respiratory movements. More precisely, not only about them. In fact, the Turks got their revenge that very evening. Few paid attention to the words of Colonel-General Viktor Bondarev at a briefing on November 27, 2015 (and it should be):
“As soon as Captain Murakhtin was safe, in the area where militants and several other well-equipped and equipped groups were strenuously looking for him, more than massive, crushing blows were delivered by our bombers. "
The division into "militants" and "other well-equipped groups" is clearly visible. Obviously, militants mean representatives of irregular illegal formations, and well-equipped groups mean someone who does not belong either to terrorists or to the pro-government forces and the RF Armed Forces. Who could it be? Most likely, the units of the Turkish special forces. Perhaps, together with the special forces of other members of the "international coalition."
And the Turks, it seems, immediately understood everything. Note, despite the bellicose statements of Erdogan and Cavusoglu, the body of Oleg Peshkov was handed over with all military honors. But for the Turks, everything was just beginning. It was decided to force them to peace in several directions. This is a temporary cancellation of the visa-free regime, a temporary suspension of the sale of tourist vouchers to Turkey, a ban on the import of certain Turkish goods, changes in customs duties, financial transactions, foreign trade transactions, etc. As a result, the total economic damage to Turkey amounted to about $ 12 billion.
Here, by the way, one interesting moment should be noted. In the view of Russian neoliberals, if the West imposes economic sanctions against Russia, it is because the West is strong, wise and can defeat Russia without a war. But Russia has imposed economic sanctions against Turkey because it has "drifted" to fight and cannot do anything else. Such a dualism of opinions on the same issue is characteristic of Russian neoliberals and serves as yet another indication that what they say should be ignored.
Of course, there was also a military response. The missile cruiser Moskva occupied the area off the coast of Latakia, the S-400 complexes were delivered to the Khmeimim airbase, ready, if necessary, to shoot down potentially dangerous targets. Bombers began to fly out on missions under the cover of fighters. At the same time, there were also implicit military measures of influence.
In the spring of 2016, the Kurdistan Workers' Party began tweeting about the completion of the training of the young recruits in the mountain camps and their descent into the plains. The Turks regularly "vomited" from such news, but this time the Kurds promised even more fighters, more new weapons, new teaching methods. And the result was not long in coming.
Only from 22 to 24 March 2016, according to official Turkish data - and they, according to many, need to be multiplied by 3-5 - the Turkish army lost 16 people killed, over 30 people were wounded and 2 armored vehicles. And such rates of losses persisted for a long time. The fighting qualities of the most experienced Turkish 4th Army Corps were clearly visible in Kurdish cities, for example, in Cizr, where a 10,000-strong group, without much results, suffered only officially losses from 1 to 5 killed and 10-15 wounded per day.
In the Turkish media, half-panic materials appeared about "Serbian snipers", "Chechen special forces" and "GRU instructors", an abundance of ATGM systems, trained small groups with large-caliber sniper rifles and automatic weapons, the Kurds themselves boasted of their novelties. "The cherry on the cake" can be called the destruction of an AH-1W Cobra combat helicopter from Igla MANPADS on May 13, 2016 in the Turkish province of Hakkari. In an official communique, the loss was confirmed, but due to an alleged "technical malfunction". He flew to the aid of his brothers, who officially lost 6 killed and 8 wounded.
You can also remember how the Turks in February-March 2020 lost 200 people in Idlib only officially (that is, you need to multiply by at least two or three), plus the destroyed armored vehicles. Moreover, 33 people - with one blow. Officially, of course, Russia has nothing to do with this, the Syrians did everything. But ...
You can, of course, ask, what does Russia have to do with all this? Is this Turkey's revenge? Yes, this is Turkey's revenge. Graceful, sophisticated, almost unprovable. When the Turks in the 90s trained and supplied the "fighters for independence" in the Caucasus, did they not think that they would ever be measured with the same measure? Receive, sign. And there is no need to hoot "Ah, they were scared to fight openly !!"
The East is a delicate matter, and they value not only brute strength, but also the ability to achieve their own by implicit methods. Those who need it have seen and understood everything perfectly. They didn't shoot down a Turkish plane - well, that's because no one flew to the border for over a year. It is important to bear in mind that the possible purpose of the provocation was to divert Russian forces from the fight against terrorist groups and to draw them into a conflict with Turkey.
It would not have lasted long, but this could threaten Russia with reputational losses, new sanctions, the stigma of the aggressor (although for the first time, perhaps), expulsion from some international organizations, etc. In any case, the harm from the war would be more than good. Instead, Russia showed restraint and acted in a balanced, reasonable and effective manner. And the relatively modest efforts made were enough to ensure that not Vladimir Putin flew to Istanbul, but Recep Erdogan flew to St. Petersburg and made an official apology.
The fact that he was received not in Moscow, but in the hometown of the President, is also, by the way, significant. Instead of an enemy, Russia has received, albeit a temporary one, an ally who acts as we need. By the way, by Eastern standards, Erdogan very, very "caved in", and it was clear from his face in St. Petersburg that he was so powerfully set up. However, pride did not allow me to admit it. But we are not working with Erdogan, but with Turkey. Erdogans come and go, but Turkey remains.
Turkish society is also very grateful that the Russians did not "break" in full, helped with the coup attempt, and the militants from the "Gray Wolves" group who shot Peshkov, according to some information, turned on the "captured Ukrainian regime" and began to swear that it was not they, all sorts of crooks act on their behalf, the USA are goats, but they are all for Russia with all their hearts. In general, the classic "changing shoes in the air."
Arrogance does not benefit interstate relations and geopolitical interests. Russia has clearly shown that the desired result can be achieved with much less effort. Turkey has paid a hundredfold for its rash act with killed people, destroyed equipment and billions of dollars in economic losses. And rightly so.
https://cont.ws/@gavrilenko90/1512008
