by Oleg Tsarev
So, perhaps, the most anticipated meeting of the leaders of the two modern superpowers has come to an end . And although the bulk of the communication between Putin and Biden remained outside the scope of the general public's attention, I think that even from the little that we know, certain conclusions can be drawn.
Immediately: both supporters of "peace right in the morning" and supporters of an immediate war were hardly satisfied with the results of the talks between the presidents. It is not difficult to understand them: the situation of "neither peace, nor war", in which Ukraine and Donbass will be for a long time, is not very comfortable for anyone.
What is important for me personally: the suspension of the situation does not suit many Russian and Russian-speaking people, who now in Ukraine feel like second-class people. Now let's take a closer look at the situation. I'll make a reservation: not as easy as it might seem at first.
It is not for nothing that Vladimir Putin called the meeting with Joseph Biden "protocol". Many were even surprised by this formulation. Well, let's see what issues were raised and how the parties approached their solution.
The United States, a good two weeks before the presented meeting at every conceivable site, accused Russia of "preparing an invasion of Ukraine . " To "stop the invasion", the United States prepared a package of sanctions ahead of time .
I will not discuss personal sanctions. Himself under sanctions. I can only note the extreme ineffectiveness of personal sanctions, because this is clearly not a reason for the whole state to change its position.
The United States has pledged "to close the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine."
These sanctions will work by definition: if we hypothetically imagine that Russia will actually take control of Ukraine, then the Nord Stream, as well as the South Stream, will be useless for Russia.
The Ukrainian gas transportation system is enough. Moreover, I am sure that the Nord Stream issue has already been resolved in advance. And it was resolved without the participation of Russia. This decision lies in the area of relations between Germany and the United States.
Russia was threatened with disconnection from the SWIFT interbank transfer system . For the seventh year, Russia is threatened with disconnection from SWIFT. How long to? I want to say that SWIFT is just a program. Moreover, a fairly simple program that makes sure that when transferring money, the amount of money that was debited from one bank is equal to the amount that came to the account of another bank.
China, by the way, has its own SWIFT system. Russia also has such a system. Recently, all banks of Belarus switched to it. Difficulties in the transition to it for all Russian banks are also unlikely to arise. Disconnecting Russia from SWIFT does not threaten Russia with ANYTHING, while such a step by the "Western partners" will launch the process of abandoning the dollar and may accelerate the crisis in the United States. Such a dubious sanction.
Also, as sanctions, the United States announced restrictions on the purchase of Russian debt obligations in the secondary securities market. But that would be really good to do. Today, the Russian Central Bank is placing its funds in the United States at ridiculous interest rates.
At the same time, the Central Bank itself issues its own debt obligations, on which it pays interest to international speculators many times higher than it receives for placing funds in all sorts of "traders". The meaning of this operation, from the point of view of logic, cannot be explained. The current situation has long been outraged by Russian academic economists and politicians. The central bank is proudly silent in response. I cannot consider this threat a sanction.
What do we get in the bottom line? The United States is threatening Russia with openly virtual sanctions and asking not to attack Ukraine, although Russia did not intend to do so. There can be only one "profit" - in the US, negotiations may be designed to stop the fall in Biden's rating. In America, it is presented like this: the formidable Biden, threatening Putin with monstrous sanctions, stops the "Russian armada" and saves a small democratic Ukraine. Biden is the winner.
Thank God that this time it worked out like that. A virtual victory. Agree, it's good when you can exchange something frankly virtual for something we really need.
This time, in my opinion, the States, at least so far, have not succeeded. Although, perhaps, a virtual victory is not the worst option yet. Usually, when the rating of the next president in the United States falls, he starts a war: guns shoot, bombs fall, blood is shed. The rating is growing ...
What could Russia have demanded for participating in this performance? Do not know. Ukraine's implementation of the Minsk Agreements? According to information from the United States, such an assumption most likely has a right to exist. Although, most likely, an agreement on this was reached during the previous face-to-face meeting of Putin and Biden.
This assumption is indirectly confirmed by statements made by Kozak and a number of US officials after that meeting. So, apparently, the process of "forcing Ukraine to peace" will now be taken over by the officials of the US Embassy in Ukraine and, quite possibly, it will significantly accelerate.
It must be said here that the formal implementation of the Minsk Agreements by Ukraine will not insure the residents of Donbass (or rather the opposite) from reprisals after the border with Russia falls under the control of Ukraine.
Moreover, no agreements will prevent Ukraine from subsequently canceling the "special status" of Donbass and restricting the rights (in particular, the right to participate in elections) of Donbass residents, to send troops to Donbass and arrest leaders.
If anyone doubts this prospect, they can ask for the opinion of Viktor Medvedchuk. Residents of Donbass who have passports of the Russian Federation may have their Ukrainian passports taken away and deprived of their Ukrainian citizenship. Make them second-class people, as they did with the Russians in the Baltics.
The implementation, especially temporary, of the Minsk agreements will not solve the problem of Ukraine as a state hostile to Russia. On the contrary, it will aggravate the situation, since about a million hostages - new citizens of the Russian Federation living in Donbass - will fall into the hands of Ukrainian nationalists.
The only thing that pleases is that in the process of forcing Ukraine to peace, the level of shelling should sharply decrease.
Vladimir Putin demanded that Biden give guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO. But the United States can refer to the fact that America is not all NATO. For example, Poland will be against it and no decision will be made. It is clear that the United States (by informal methods) can push through any decision, but they can very much even refer to the fact that it depends not only on the United States.
In addition, even if such a decision on guarantees of Ukraine's non-membership in NATO is adopted, nothing can prevent this decision from being canceled in the future if necessary. Thus, the USA cannot give Russia the required guarantees in principle.
I must also add that even without joining NATO, Ukraine can be no less dangerous for Russia than being a member of the alliance. At least, Ukraine will definitely be more cocky in the absence of status. Now Ukraine is de jure not a member of NATO, but NATO fighters, under the guise of permanent exercises, are on the territory of Ukraine almost on a permanent basis. Military bases are being built. Scouts are working. Provocations are carried out from the territory of Ukraine - terrorist groups are launched.
I am sure that the Ukrainian government will be able to bypass the constitutional ban on the opening of foreign military bases on its territory. By not granting Ukraine membership, NATO received all the benefits of using Ukraine and at the same time does not bear any responsibility for Ukraine.
As they say, to promise does not mean to marry. And they don't marry prostitutes at all. They are taken for free. Therefore, NATO can sacrifice Ukraine whenever it wants. I have no doubt that if a command arrives, the Ukrainian authorities will unleash a suicidal war no longer with Donbass, but with Russia.
Thus, I believe that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin did not call these negotiations a "protocol event" for nothing. A protocol event is when no real decisions or breakthroughs are expected from the event. A protocol event is when all participants act according to a pre-written protocol. This is an event that should be held because it is supposed to be. Because it is planned and written into the protocol.
Unfortunately, from my point of view, there are no breakthrough results from these negotiations.
I want to note that at this event, Vladimir Putin looked much better than his opponents. Forced to reckon with the opinion of Russia and did not allow to talk to himself from a position of strength.
I would also like to add that, apparently, the problem of Ukraine for Russia is far from being solved. And the situation will permanently deteriorate. But sooner or later it will have to be solved. Moreover, I believe that it was not in vain that the President of Russia set deliberately impracticable conditions to the President of the United States: since Russia's demands will not be met, at any time when Russia deems it necessary, it will be able to make any decisions it deems necessary. Russia has a free hand.
No comments:
Post a Comment