How Turkey was punished for the downed Su-24 in 2015

https://cont.ws/@gavrilenko90/1512008

On November 24, 2015 over Syrian territory, near the Syrian-Turkish border, a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a Russian front-line bomber Su-24, which bombed the positions of terrorist groups in the province Latakia. As a result, pilot Oleg Peshkov and serviceman Alexander Pozynich from the search and rescue service were killed, and an Mi-8 helicopter was destroyed. Navigator Konstantin Murakhtin was rescued and delivered to the Khmeimim airbase. The Turkish authorities accused Russia of violating the border and said that in this way they were protecting the Turkomans, a nation that Turkey considers to be related. Russia, in turn, accused Turkey of violating Syrian airspace and aiding terrorists.

This is a brief plot of events that froze Russian-Turkish relations for almost nine months. However, what happened after deserves a more detailed analysis. In the Russian Internet space, the opinion has long been strengthened and is being cultivated that Russia did not answer in any way for the destroyed equipment and the dead servicemen, fearing a full-scale war with NATO. But let's not get emotional and try to take a sober look at the facts.

An important aspect that needs to be taken into account is that the shooting down of the Su-24 was an ordinary provocation and a pre-planned action. Moreover, the Turks contradict themselves, declaring a violation of the airspace for a few seconds and immediately providing allegedly records with the controllers' demands to change the course lasting more than five minutes. Be that as it may, it is impossible to shoot down a plane that has violated the border for a few seconds (according to the Turks themselves), unless you wait for it in advance. And you can't go anywhere with professional shooting of a fall. But this crime looks even more despicable and cynical against the background of statements in 2012 by then Turkish President Abdullah Gul after Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 fighter:

"It is a common practice for combat aircraft to sometimes cross and leave [state] borders, given their speed over the sea. These things are not bad intentions, they just happen due to the difficulty of controlling the speeds of jet aircraft."

But the stolen Syrian oil and the greed for profit turned the head of the Turkish leadership. So much so that it turned into real accomplices of terrorism. Other facts indicate that the destruction of the Su-24 was deliberate and planned. For example, on January 29, 2016, Turkey accused Russia of the Su-34 violating its airspace. But the accusations were all limited: it's not the Su-24 to shoot down from an ambush, and the 34 can snap back much more seriously. Moreover, in the same January 2016, Russian fighters somewhat defiantly violated the border over border crossings - there is at least one video on the network. Do you think anyone took off to intercept?

Another important aspect that many people overlook. Remember what Erdogan said about the incident? That in this way he defended the Turkomans. So, he did not protect anyone. The Turkomans continued to bomb on the same day, even with even greater intensity. Actually, this is all you need to know about making rash decisions in geopolitics and the impossibility of their implementation.

This is all well and good, the reader will say. But where is the bombed out Istanbul, the defeated Turkish army?

The main thing that should be understood and understood is that neither the Soviet Union nor Russia almost never answered OPEN and DIRECTLY. The Americans shot down our planes many times, including two Tu-95s at different times near the AUG, and this always ended in nothing except the battle over Sakhalin in 1983. The same when the peaceful South Korean Boeing-747 was allegedly shot down. It's not in our tradition to cut from the shoulder. But this does not mean that there was absolutely no answer. As you know, revenge is a dish that is served cold.

And the military-political leadership of Russia prepared it perfectly. Now we are not talking about the notorious tomatoes, which in individuals who are not endowed with intelligence cause characteristic short sounds caused by intermittent rhythmic respiratory movements. More precisely, not only about them. In fact, the Turks got their revenge that very evening. Few paid attention to the words of Colonel-General Viktor Bondarev at a briefing on November 27, 2015 (and it should be):

“As soon as Captain Murakhtin was safe, in the area where militants and several other well-equipped and equipped groups were strenuously looking for him, more than massive, crushing blows were delivered by our bombers. "

The division into "militants" and "other well-equipped groups" is clearly visible. Obviously, militants mean representatives of irregular illegal formations, and well-equipped groups mean someone who does not belong either to terrorists or to the pro-government forces and the RF Armed Forces. Who could it be? Most likely, the units of the Turkish special forces. Perhaps, together with the special forces of other members of the "international coalition."

And the Turks, it seems, immediately understood everything. Note, despite the bellicose statements of Erdogan and Cavusoglu, the body of Oleg Peshkov was handed over with all military honors. But for the Turks, everything was just beginning. It was decided to force them to peace in several directions. This is a temporary cancellation of the visa-free regime, a temporary suspension of the sale of tourist vouchers to Turkey, a ban on the import of certain Turkish goods, changes in customs duties, financial transactions, foreign trade transactions, etc. As a result, the total economic damage to Turkey amounted to about $ 12 billion.

Here, by the way, one interesting moment should be noted. In the view of Russian neoliberals, if the West imposes economic sanctions against Russia, it is because the West is strong, wise and can defeat Russia without a war. But Russia has imposed economic sanctions against Turkey because it has "drifted" to fight and cannot do anything else. Such a dualism of opinions on the same issue is characteristic of Russian neoliberals and serves as yet another indication that what they say should be ignored.

Of course, there was also a military response. The missile cruiser Moskva occupied the area off the coast of Latakia, the S-400 complexes were delivered to the Khmeimim airbase, ready, if necessary, to shoot down potentially dangerous targets. Bombers began to fly out on missions under the cover of fighters. At the same time, there were also implicit military measures of influence.

In the spring of 2016, the Kurdistan Workers' Party began tweeting about the completion of the training of the young recruits in the mountain camps and their descent into the plains. The Turks regularly "vomited" from such news, but this time the Kurds promised even more fighters, more new weapons, new teaching methods. And the result was not long in coming.

Only from 22 to 24 March 2016, according to official Turkish data - and they, according to many, need to be multiplied by 3-5 - the Turkish army lost 16 people killed, over 30 people were wounded and 2 armored vehicles. And such rates of losses persisted for a long time. The fighting qualities of the most experienced Turkish 4th Army Corps were clearly visible in Kurdish cities, for example, in Cizr, where a 10,000-strong group, without much results, suffered only officially losses from 1 to 5 killed and 10-15 wounded per day.

In the Turkish media, half-panic materials appeared about "Serbian snipers", "Chechen special forces" and "GRU instructors", an abundance of ATGM systems, trained small groups with large-caliber sniper rifles and automatic weapons, the Kurds themselves boasted of their novelties. "The cherry on the cake" can be called the destruction of an AH-1W Cobra combat helicopter from Igla MANPADS on May 13, 2016 in the Turkish province of Hakkari. In an official communique, the loss was confirmed, but due to an alleged "technical malfunction". He flew to the aid of his brothers, who officially lost 6 killed and 8 wounded.

You can also remember how the Turks in February-March 2020 lost 200 people in Idlib only officially (that is, you need to multiply by at least two or three), plus the destroyed armored vehicles. Moreover, 33 people - with one blow. Officially, of course, Russia has nothing to do with this, the Syrians did everything. But ...

You can, of course, ask, what does Russia have to do with all this? Is this Turkey's revenge? Yes, this is Turkey's revenge. Graceful, sophisticated, almost unprovable. When the Turks in the 90s trained and supplied the "fighters for independence" in the Caucasus, did they not think that they would ever be measured with the same measure? Receive, sign. And there is no need to hoot "Ah, they were scared to fight openly !!"

The East is a delicate matter, and they value not only brute strength, but also the ability to achieve their own by implicit methods. Those who need it have seen and understood everything perfectly. They didn't shoot down a Turkish plane - well, that's because no one flew to the border for over a year. It is important to bear in mind that the possible purpose of the provocation was to divert Russian forces from the fight against terrorist groups and to draw them into a conflict with Turkey.

It would not have lasted long, but this could threaten Russia with reputational losses, new sanctions, the stigma of the aggressor (although for the first time, perhaps), expulsion from some international organizations, etc. In any case, the harm from the war would be more than good. Instead, Russia showed restraint and acted in a balanced, reasonable and effective manner. And the relatively modest efforts made were enough to ensure that not Vladimir Putin flew to Istanbul, but Recep Erdogan flew to St. Petersburg and made an official apology.

The fact that he was received not in Moscow, but in the hometown of the President, is also, by the way, significant. Instead of an enemy, Russia has received, albeit a temporary one, an ally who acts as we need. By the way, by Eastern standards, Erdogan very, very "caved in", and it was clear from his face in St. Petersburg that he was so powerfully set up. However, pride did not allow me to admit it. But we are not working with Erdogan, but with Turkey. Erdogans come and go, but Turkey remains.

Turkish society is also very grateful that the Russians did not "break" in full, helped with the coup attempt, and the militants from the "Gray Wolves" group who shot Peshkov, according to some information, turned on the "captured Ukrainian regime" and began to swear that it was not they, all sorts of crooks act on their behalf, the USA are goats, but they are all for Russia with all their hearts. In general, the classic "changing shoes in the air."

Arrogance does not benefit interstate relations and geopolitical interests. Russia has clearly shown that the desired result can be achieved with much less effort. Turkey has paid a hundredfold for its rash act with killed people, destroyed equipment and billions of dollars in economic losses. And rightly so.


https://cont.ws/@gavrilenko90/1512008

Japan kept Soviet forces pinned down in the east during WWII

 

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Text is from a speech by Anatoly Koshkin delivered September 30th at a conference on Russian military history in Moskva

 October 1, 2021 , 18:10 - REGNUM 

In Western historiography, and often in the writings of Russian "overthrowers of the historical concepts of the totalitarian period," it is common to say that the success of the counteroffensive near Moscow "the Stalinist regime owes Japan." Which, allegedly, honestly fulfilling the obligations under the Soviet-Japanese pact of neutrality, made it possible at a critical moment to transfer the Siberian and Far Eastern divisions to the Soviet-German front, which ensured the victory. 

This version is widespread in Japan itself. The Japanese authors of the book Milestones on the Way to the Conclusion of a Peace Treaty between Japan and Russia, published in Russian, write: "... Having transferred his troops from the Far East and from Siberia to the west, I. Stalin was able to fight the German army with full dedication, and Japan, for its part, was able to send the elite troops of the Kwantung Army to the south." 

And the chairman of the pro-government Council on National Security (Ampoken), which published this propaganda book, professor of Russian studies Shigeki Khakamada agreed that the Russians should thank Japan for not entering the war. 

However, the facts indicate the opposite - until the middle of 1943, overhanging its million-strong Kwantung Army (army group) over the Soviet Far East and Eastern Siberia, Japan fettered the Red Army troops stationed here, not allowing them to be used in the fight against the German fascist invaders. 

As a result, up to a third of the Armed Forces of the USSR were unable to take part in the fight against the Nazi hordes. 

This is confirmed by the following data: "As of December 1, 1941, out of 5,495 thousand people of the total composition of the Armed Forces of the Soviet Union in the Far East and at the southern borders, there were 1568 thousand, or more than 28 percent. Of the 4495 tanks in service with the Red Army at that time, there were 2,541 tanks in the Far East and at the southern borders of the USSR, and 2,951 aircraft out of 5,274 aircraft remained there. By this policy of shackling with the threat of an attack of Soviet troops, coordinated with Berlin, Tokyo prolonged the Great Patriotic War, increasing the losses of the Soviet people. 

Japan's planned attack on the USSR on August 29, 1941 did not take place not as a result of the alleged observance of the Soviet-Japanese pact of neutrality, as Japanese propaganda claims, but as a consequence of the failure of the German plan for a blitzkrieg and preservation even at the most critical moments on the Soviet-German front a large grouping of Soviet troops in the Far East and Siberia. 

At the same time, preparations for the attack continued until 1943. By the document "Program for the implementation of the state policy of the empire," adopted on September 6, 1941 at a meeting of the top leadership of Japan in the presence of the emperor and the Supreme Commander of the Army and Navy Hirohito, it was decided to continue the seizure of the colonial possessions of the Western powers in the south, without stopping before the war. 

A few days later it became known in the Kremlin. 

"According to a source of Invest (Hotsumi Ozaki - A.K.), the Japanese government decided not to oppose the USSR this year, but the armed forces will be left in the MCG (Manchukuo - A.K.) the case of the defeat of the USSR by that time." 

Note that in Russian sources, especially in the articles of publicists who, apparently, are not familiar with the full text of the message to Soviet spy Richard Sorge, the second part of the encryption is often omitted. But she mattered no less than the first. In fact, the Soviet intelligence officer warned that it was only about postponing the attack on the USSR, which, of course, was taken into account when determining the scale of the transfer of troops from the eastern regions of the country to Moscow. 

Although Sorge reported the likelihood of an attack in the spring of next year, according to Japanese plans, the war in the south did not rule out an attack on the Soviet Union in 1941. The General Staff of the Japanese ground forces developed a version of the plan for the war against the USSR "Kantokuen" ("Special maneuvers of the Kwantung Army"), which was to be carried out immediately after the expected fall of Moscow and a sharp change in favor of Japan in the balance of forces in the Far East. 

Given the complexity of offensive operations on all fronts in the autumn-winter period, the General Staff envisaged an initial strike in the eastern (coastal) direction. After the invasion of Primorye, the troops of the Eastern Front were to advance on Khabarovsk, capturing it before the onset of severe cold weather. At this time, the troops of the Northern and Western Fronts were to gain a foothold in the areas of the Small and Big Khingan, respectively, and await the onset of spring. With the beginning of ice melting, it was planned to force the Amur and develop an offensive to the west from the Rukhlovo - Bolshoi Khingan region in the direction of Lake Baikal. 

In development of this plan, the command of the Kwantung Army proposed, with the start of an offensive on the eastern front, by forces of two or three divisions in the fall to force the Amur in the Khabarovsk region in order to facilitate the capture of the city. 

Operations to seize Northern Sakhalin, Kamchatka and other regions, as well as the occupation of the Mongolian People's Republic, were to be carried out in accordance with the previous concept of the Cantokuen plan. Despite the preparations for the conduct of hostilities in the south, the Japanese Navy also retained a grouping of forces created specifically for the war against the USSR. They were consolidated into the 5th Fleet, which was based in the area of ​​the northern port of Ominato. 

The Japanese troops allocated for the war against the USSR were not included in the battle plans in the south and were preparing for action in the north. Official Japanese sources indicate that both in the context of the outbreak of war against the United States and Great Britain, and in order to continue military operations in China, Japan retained up to 40 percent of divisions in Manchuria, Korea and the mother country for the war against the USSR. 

There are other numbers as well. So, according to the information at the disposal of the Tokyo Tribunal, by December 5, 1941, about 50 percent of the infantry divisions, 75-80 percent of the cavalry units, about 65 percent of the tank regiments, half of the artillery and aviation of the ground forces were prepared for the attack on the Soviet Union. 

The most anti-Soviet politicians and military officials openly declared that "the Japanese Empire must play its role in ending the German-Soviet war ." The influential Japanese magazine Kaizo published in the November 1941 issue of the article "A New Stage of the Soviet-German War and Japan," which said: "Japan rejoices in the victories of its ally, Germany, and wishes her further success. Japan must undoubtedly use the international situation created by Germany's victories to accomplish its own great cause." 

Although by the end of November, at the cost of enormous efforts, Hitler's troops approached Moscow, contrary to the expectations of the Japanese command, even during this critical period the forces of the Red Army in the Far East were not weakened. Instead of the divisions that were leaving for Moscow, new divisions were immediately formed at the expense of local conscription. After a thorough analysis of the situation, the Japanese command was forced to come to the conclusion that it was advisable to postpone the date of the armed uprising against the USSR until the spring of 1942. 

On December 3, the imperial headquarters sent order No. 578 to the Kwantung Army, which stated: "To provide the Empire with resources and create a new order in the Great East Asia, it was decided to start a war with the USA, Great Britain and Holland. It is envisaged to quickly conduct an offensive in important areas in the south and at the same time resolve the Chinese incident (this is how the bloody Sino-Japanese war unleashed in 1937 is called in Japan - A.K.); at this time, not to allow war with Russia." 

Together with the order, headquarters directive No. 1048 was issued, in which the task of the Kwantung Army was set: "In accordance with the evolving situation, intensify preparations for operations against Russia. Be ready to start hostilities in the spring of 1942." 

However, among the Japanese leadership, there was still hope that Hitler's troops would still be able to capture Moscow by the end of 1941. In this case, the Japanese offensive could begin in winter. 

Therefore, on December 3, the headquarters also issued order No. 575 to the commander of the expeditionary army in China on the possible partial transfer of troops subordinate to him to the north. The order prescribed, with the beginning of hostilities against the Soviet Union, first of all to capture the Ussuri region, and if successful, to start an offensive on the Northern Front. 

For this it was necessary to transfer six divisions from China to the Kwantung Army. To break through the Soviet defense line in the winter of 1941-1942. and crossing the Amur, Ussuri and other water barriers, additional artillery and engineering units were sent to the Kwantung Army. January 10, 1942. 

The Kwantung Army understood that the decision to postpone the attack to the spring of 1942 was of a general nature, and continued to actively prepare for the expected "turning point" on the Soviet-German front. 

After receiving the order of December 3, the Chief of Staff of the Kwantung Army at a meeting of formation commanders gave the following instructions: "To end the ongoing preparations for operations against the Soviet Union each army and joining the first line should make every effort to ensure that, watching the constantly occurring changes in state of war USSR and Mongolia, to be able to establish the true situation at any time. This is especially true in the present conditions, when more and more there is a need to establish the signs of a turning point in the situation." 

In other words, it was about being in a state of constant readiness to fulfill the order to enter the war after the fall of Moscow. The strategy chosen by the Japanese generals was called the "ripe persimmon theory". Its meaning was to attack the USSR from the east, when, like a ripe fruit, it would be ready to "fall by itself at the feet of Japan." 

However, the turning point that came in December 1941 was of a completely different content than the Japanese militarists had imagined. The unfolding counter-offensive of the Red Army ended with the defeat of the Nazi troops rushing to Moscow. This marked the beginning of a radical turn in the war. And this turn took place in favor of the USSR. The results of the Battle of Moscow demonstrated to the whole world that the German strategy of lightning war had failed. 

The defeat of Hitler's troops near Moscow was a serious blow to Japanese plans for a treacherous attack on the USSR. The failure of Plan Barbarossa was convincing evidence that the Soviet Union, despite initial military setbacks, retained considerable power to continue the war, and the Red Army was capable of delivering devastating blows to the enemy in both the west and east. 

This frightened the Japanese ruling circles, forcing them to assess with greater caution the prospects for the development of the world war, especially the situation on the Soviet-German front. 

Lies about Srebrenica genocide hide the truth about the massacre of Serbs in Sarajevo

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Welcome rantburg readers

E. Guskova's speech at the international conference “Results of the work of independent international commissions: Serbian victims in the civil war in Sarajevo 1991-1995. and the victims of all peoples in the region of Srebrenica 1992-1995 ”, which was held at the Foundation for the Support of Public Diplomacy. A. M. Gorchakova September 14.

By Elena Guskova

21 сентября 2021, 09:14 — REGNUM

The current crisis on the territory of the former Yugoslavia, the collapse of the federation have become a tragedy not only for people of all nationalities of the former Yugoslavia, but also for the whole of Europe. Hundreds of thousands of dead, millions of refugees, mass crimes, hatred and cruelty, twisted destinies, destroyed churches and mosques, museums and libraries - these are the main milestones of this tragedy.

Events in BiH are complex and multifaceted, they include the problems of the peculiarities of the development of the three peoples, and the struggle for the creation of state formations, and the activities of the peacekeeping forces, and the most complex theater of military operations, when everyone was fighting against everyone.

Multinational Bosnia and Herzegovina was considered the most tolerant republic of Yugoslavia. Nobody believed in the possibility of interethnic clashes on its territory. And during the negotiations of the leaders of the republics of the SFRY about the fate of the federation, Bosnia and Herzegovina did not determine its position for a long time. Nevertheless, events in it developed in the most tragic way.

The Socialist Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was part of the SFRY, declared its independence in March 1992. Almost immediately after this, the escalation of interethnic contradictions began, which grew into a full-scale war that lasted until the end of 1995.

There are still questions about the Bosnian war that some politicians are reluctant to answer. For example, could the disintegration of the SFRY be made peaceful, why was the entire policy of Europe and the United States anti-Serb, and why did not Russia act as a guarantor of the objectivity of international organizations when considering the Balkan events?

The Muslims began to arm themselves earlier than the Serbs. The National Defense Council was created back in June 1991. It directed the work of the Patriotic League and the Green Berets, preparing the people for defense, for war.

On May 12, 1992, the Army of the Republika Srpska was created.

The Serbs call April 4 the day of the Muslim putsch in Sarajevo, when, in parallel with the mobilization, hostilities began - the police buildings, post offices, and all the most important objects of the city were engaged. At the same time, the Serbs consider this day as the day of their uprising.

It is important to remind that the United States and Europe recognized a united BiH on April 6, 1992. They supported the unity of BiH, and hence the Muslim government. It turned out that the Serbs were fighting against the recognized authorities. Muslims were helped by Iran, and not only. Everyone turned a blind eye to many of the Boshniks' crimes and blamed exclusively the Serbs for the escalation of the conflict. And the Republika Srpska fought to protect and protect the lands where the Serbian population lived.

Today the military events in BiH are largely described. But one pattern can be traced. Since there was no objective attitude of international organizations towards the parties to the conflict, some of the facts that were not in favor of the Bosnian Muslims were hushed up, distorted, or even attributed to the actions of the Serbs.

For example, in early May 1992, a special Muslim detachment, many of whose members were in Islamic terrorist organizations, began to commit a number of crimes, including massacres of Muslim citizens of Sarajevo. They attacked wearing Serbian uniforms. This was part of a conceived "propaganda plan to gain sympathy in the world and ensure military intervention."

Bosnian Muslims orchestrated many of the acts attributed to the Serbs - the bombing of the bread line on May 27, 1992, Douglas Hurd on July 17, an explosion in a cemetery on August 4, the murder of a representative of the ABC television company on August 13, etc. All this was accompanied by an information war directed against the Serbs. Many of these pages of the war in BiH have already been described, documented, albeit with a delay (Markale-1, Markale-2, explosion on Vasya Miskina street, etc.).

But there are events for the truth about which we had and still have to fight. Let's start with Sarajevo.

The inner life of the city during the war was always hidden from prying eyes. It was only known that the city was under constant artillery fire, that unbearable living conditions were created in it, that the people survived only due to humanitarian supplies from international organizations. Crime, disobedience to laws, cruelty, fundamentalism, religious intolerance broke into the city.

The authors of the memoirs describe the unbearable suffering of Serbs and Croats, when the atrocities of bandits were encouraged by the government, and humanitarian organizations could not change the picture of what was happening. Serbs were killed with impunity, tortured in the dungeons of private prisons, kept in tunnels, sent to the first front lines under bullets.

BiH Presidium member Biljana Plavsic wrote to UNPROFOR in July 1992 that 35-50 thousand Serbs in Sarajevo do not receive humanitarian aid, that a prison for Serbs has been set up in the Yugokomerts administrative building near the Veterinary Faculty in Sarajevo, where they are interrogated and tortured they kill and the bodies are thrown into the river.

Academician Milorad Ekmečić, who fled from Sarajevo, spoke about the cruel treatment of Serbs in the city in his memoirs.

Velko Kojovich wrote in his diary on May 17 that armed men came to Serb houses, searched them, looked for weapons, spies, the "fifth column" and "Serbotesters". In the basements of the once famous Sarajevo restaurant “RS” they created “one of the most terrible places of torture that a person can think of.” [1] three parts (Muslim, Croatian and Serbian) Ministry of the Interior.

In the city, after the start of the shelling, a terrible situation was created for the Serbs. Obviously, according to the directives from the mosques and the orders of the authorities, the cleaning of the city from the Serbian population began in any way. In the city, they frightened with Serbian snipers, spread rumors that the Serbs were sending light signals for shelling, that there were many Chetniks left in the city who had weapons.

Mass searches began. Formally, the Serbs were looking for weapons, ammunition, electronic devices. But during these searches, they took away all the money, jewelry, televisions, equipment, everything of value. And if someone just stuttered that they were being robbed, they would kill them on the spot. The Bosnian Muslims from the very beginning had lists of Serbs who needed to be liquidated or removed in any way.

For many years no one wrote about what happened to the Serbian population in Sarajevo. The material about the Serbs killed in Sarajevo was prepared by the director of the Institute for Research on Serbian Victims in the 20th century, Milivoye Ivanishevich.

At the same time, when it came to Srebrenica, the onslaught of the Western media on this issue was enormous - and not in the mid-nineties, but later. Srebrenica became synonymous with the genocide of the Muslim population, allegedly committed by the Serbian military in July 1995. Very quickly, the Serbs were accused of killing 8,000 Muslims, a memorial cemetery was built, and the UN Security Council raised the issue of banning the revision of the “genocide” issue.

On January 15, 2009, the European Parliament proclaimed July 11 "the day of commemoration of the genocide in Srebrenica, where 8,000 civilians were killed by Bosnian Serb forces in 1995". The lie about Srebrenica was difficult to fight. At the same time, the Assembly of Serbia in March 2010 made an apology for the crimes committed. Republika Srpska also agreed with the conclusions of the ICTY, but then changed her mind.

However, over time, more and more facts appeared, indicating that Srebrenica was a planned and well-executed operation by Muslim and Western intelligence services.

In July 2012, Belarus granted political asylum to a major in French intelligence, who showed documents on the events of that time. According to those documents, the assassinations in Srebrenica were prepared by the intelligence services of the United States, Britain and France, using mercenaries.

American John Schindler has published a lot of new data showing that it was Sarajevo who "handed over" Srebrenica to present to the world a tragedy for which the Serbs are again to blame. Many researchers drew attention to an interesting episode from the book when Aliya Izetbegovic told the leadership of Srebrenica: “You know, Clinton suggested to me in April 1993 that the Chetnik forces should enter Srebrenica, massacre 5,000 Muslims, and then there will be a military intervention” [2] ...

For a long 25 years there was a struggle for the truth about those events. Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik called this an increase in the epidemic of lies about Srebrenica. In Banja Luka, the Republican Secretariat for Relations with the ICTY and the Study of War Crimes actively worked. They have a lot of documents and materials.

That is why the materials published by the Independent Commissions of Inquiry on the events in Sarajevo and Srebrenica during the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina are so important today. They shed light on much of what happened in those years. Let's study them carefully, and introduce the published data into scientific circulation.

Notes:

[1] Kojoviћ V. Krvava koshuљa sarajevska. Beograd: Dobrotvor, 1995.S. 65.

[2] Schindler Џ. R. Nesveti terror. Bosna, Al Qaeda, and the Global Qihad. - Beograd: Service glasnik, 2009.S. 216.

Armenia on the verge of a new war

Armenia on the verge of a new war

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Welcome Rantburg.com readers.

 By Artashes Geghamyan 

September 16, 2021 , 13:19 - REGNUM 

The events unfolding today in the South Caucasus region cannot but cause serious concern. And, to my great regret, my worries are by no means baseless and not akin to the alarmist rhetoric into which well-known Western politicians fall when characterizing the Russian-Belarusian joint military exercises "West-2021" this topic. 

In order not to be unfounded, I will give two or three examples. So, on September 14, 2021, the British The Times published an article under the headline "Great Britain: Our Fear of Putin Only Gives It Strength." 

So, in the annotation for this article, we read: "The West should not be afraid of either Russian exercises or threats of an alliance with Belarus. While the West's exercises highlight Russia's alarming military superiority over NATO countries, it lacks an appetite for real confrontation with the West." This is what the author thinks. Readers' logic: whoever is not against Russia in the comments is a Russian bot! 

Further more. The Süddeutsche Zeitung headlined its commentary on the West 2021 exercise: "The West must threaten with painful sanctions." Its author Daniel Broessler, in particular, writes: “No one should be sure that the Russian president does not want to finish what he started in 2014. After Ukraine itself was lost to the Russian sphere of influence, Vladimir Putin, there is still an opportunity to expand territorial conquests, improve communication with Crimea and consolidate the split of Ukraine; thanks to the recreation of the Novorossiya project in eastern Ukraine." 

In its turn, the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine titled its comment as follows: "Putin is testing Biden." NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also complained about the West 2021 Russian-Belarusian military exercises, stressing:

“The reality is that since the end of the Cold War, Russia has never involved the OSCE in observing the exercises. Therefore, we will be vigilant. We will be watching closely, as always, when someone conducts such a large-scale training near our borders. ”

Considering these words of the NATO Secretary General, let us draw his attention to the fact that a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, Turkey, seemingly contrary to the admonitions of the leaders of the leading NATO members, the United States and France, about the de-escalation of tension in the South Caucasus (which the ambassadors of these countries in the Republic of Armenia in its recent interviews) has consistently created an atmosphere of tension in the South Caucasus region. 

Thus, last week, the Azerbaijani (and not only) mass media published information that a special group of the Turkish command was created in Baku, which will represent the Turkish armed forces in Azerbaijan. It seems that this fact speaks very eloquently about the further plans of the Turkish military mission in Azerbaijan to escalate the situation in the South Caucasus. 

Another fact is noteworthy, Bakhtiyar Ersay, Yes, dear reader, the same General Ersay, who actually led the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, which unleashed a war against the Republic of Artsakh on October 27, 2020. The same General Ersay, who in the Karabakh theater of military operations carried out operational command of more than two thousand Syrian mercenary terrorists, Ersay, not without whose knowledge the use of phosphorus bombs prohibited by the UN Conventions during the Karabakh war (September - November 2020) was sanctioned. 

After all, there is ample evidence of the involvement of Ersay and the senior officers of the Turkish armed forces in the direct command of the criminal actions of the Syrian mercenary terrorists, who distinguished themselves with particular cruelty. 

Yes, Armenia itself cannot directly appeal to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Lynn Tracy and Jonathan Lakota, who, I repeat, recently spoke about the political line of their countries regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and who can initiate an appeal by their countries to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. 

At the same time, the fact that four generals were included in the Turkish military mission is suggestive. Thus, the aforementioned Turkish command will be represented by General Abdullah Gatyrchi, General Ender Guner, who will head the command headquarters, and the military attaché of the Turkish Embassy in Baku, General Zakaria Yalchin. 

To make it clear to the respected readers why I mentioned the US and French ambassadors to Armenia, let me remind you that they are the ones who in their interviews more than once, whether in Yerevan or the regions of the republic, have raised the issue of the unsettledness of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Thus, at a meeting with journalists in Syunik region in August this year, the US Ambassador to Armenia Lynn Tracy stated that the consequences of the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh have not been overcome, and the conflict has not been resolved, since the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not yet been determined:

“We will work as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, striving from these positions to reduce the escalation of the situation, eliminate incidents so that the remaining issues, the post-war situation and the final settlement of the remaining tasks can be considered ...

You know very well that in July I visited one of the border districts of Gegharkunik region, where incidents were registered ... I want to make it clear that we call for de-escalation of the situation in order to end the violence as soon as possible ”. 

The ambassador of friendly France to Armenia Jonathan Lakot spoke (and more than once) on the topic of the unsettledness of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict even more unequivocally . So, on August 23 in an interview with the radio station "Azatutyun" ("Freedom") J. Lakot stated:

"If it were not for the Russian troops, there would be no Armenians in Karabakh ... And the Karabakh issue as a whole has not been resolved. Therefore, we support the beginning of a political process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which the Minsk Group co-chairs are called to accompany ... The reality is that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh should be determined through negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. The status has not yet been determined. Until this status is determined, neither the French ambassador to Baku, nor the French ambassador to Yerevan can visit Karabakh. My colleague in Baku does not go to Shushi (unlike the ambassadors of Belarus, Georgia, Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia and a number of other countries, except for the USA, France and Russia - A.G.), just as I don’t go to Stepanakert."

We also remind readers that US President Joe Biden on March 18, 2021, in his congratulation addressed to Azerbaijani President Aliyev on the occasion of Novruz, wrote:

“As the Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, we remain committed to helping the parties achieve a lasting peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and facilitating the process of reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan for a prosperous and peaceful future.”

It seems that the dear reader will agree with me that the calls for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, voiced by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the United States and France, caused a very peculiar response both in Azerbaijan and from its political guide, NATO member Turkey. 

So, as reported by the Azerbaijani and Turkish media, on September 12 this year, within the framework of trilateral military cooperation, the special forces of Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan began an eight-day joint military exercise called "Three Brothers - 2021", which are designed to contribute to "further strengthening the existing ties between the three armies and helping them find new ways to combat terrorism in the region." 

It must be assumed that the Azerbaijani authorities fear that more than a thousand terrorist mercenaries (out of two thousand) who took part in the Karabakh war unleashed by the Turkish-Azerbaijani military (September - November 2020) on the side of Azerbaijan, which continue to remain on the territory of the Republic of Artsakh, occupied Azerbaijan, in the future, if Azerbaijan does not obey their Turkish mentors, they can oppose the regime of the Absheron Sultan Aliyev. For a Turk remains a Turk, even if he declared himself a brother of Azerbaijan. 

The commander of the Azerbaijani special forces, Lieutenant General Hikmet Mirzoev, who opened the exercises "Three Brothers - 2021" and called the press service of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry "the hero of the Patriotic War" Republic of Artsakh in September - November 2020), stating that "three countries - Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan - from time immemorial were not just friendly, but also fraternal countries"... The degree of extreme ignorance of Muallim Hikmet goes off scale, namely: Azerbaijan appeared on the political map of the world as an independent state only in May 1918, and Pakistan - in August 1947 as a result of the division of the territory of British India.

 Apparently, this is a sufficient condition for the "literate Taras", in our case, General Hikmet, to use the expression "from time immemorial". It is noteworthy that Muallim Hikmet's recognition that in his speech he said that Turkey and Pakistan "from the very first day supported Baku in the 44-day counter-offensive operation launched by Azerbaijan on September 27 last year (meaning the Karabakh war, September-November 2020 ). That is, he thereby stated that in addition to Turkey and the Syrian mercenary terrorists, the Pakistani military also fought on the side of Azerbaijan," he said . 

Let us remind readers that before the exercises of the special forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan "Three Brothers - 2021" on September 6 of this year. on the territory of the Kashatagh region (Lachin region, through which the corridor between Yerevan and Stepanakert passes) of Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by the Turkish-Azerbaijani military and Syrian terrorist mercenaries during the Karabakh war (September-November 2020), joint Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises started with combat shooting. 

Note that in the course of the exercises, the special forces groups of these countries practiced the skills of conducting reconnaissance on terrain with difficult terrain, organizing ambushes on the roads, and also exercised in developing skills for detecting and destroying saboteurs, an imperceptible approach to a conditional enemy, and so on. 

In a word, The Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises were an open preparation for unleashing a new military provocation against the Republic of Artsakh, as well as a demonstration for Armenia (not to the current authorities, the Absheron Sultan has no problems with them), its armed forces of the strong vulnerability of the Lachin corridor, which is the road to life for the Republic of Artsakh.

 Summarizing the above, it can be argued that today Azerbaijan is already openly preparing for a new war not only against the Republic of Artsakh, but also prepares the ground for an invasion of the territory of the Republic of Armenia. It is precisely the creation of an appropriate information background for Azerbaijan's military aggression that frank provocations to block the 21-kilometer section of the Goris-Kapan republican road in the Syunik region serve. 

Let us remind readers that in recent days, the Azerbaijani security forces on the 21-kilometer section of the Goris-Kapan highway, which they recently blocked for several days, are now stopping foreign (usually Iranian) trucks in order to take from them the transport tax and duty established by them. ... Moreover, cynicism and state banditry supported by the Absheron Sultanate have reached the point that official Baku has found an excuse for this blatant provocation, which has the goal of transferring this act of aggression into a hot phase. Official Baku found an explanation for these aggressive and hostile actions, such as:

“In accordance with Article 210 of the Tax Code of Azerbaijan, vehicles of foreign countries entering and leaving the territory of Azerbaijan are subject to road tax, as well as a road duty for obtaining a permit regulating international road transport in Azerbaijan in accordance with Article 24 of the Law on state duty ".

And this action of the Absheron authorities, absolutely not supported by legal acts, was essentially taken for granted in the speech of Nikola the capitulator at the meeting of the RA National Assembly on September 15, 2021, when he answered the question of an opposition deputy about the facts of flagrant violations of the territorial integrity of Armenia by Azerbaijan. 

That is, with the blessing of Pashinyan, the justification invented by Azerbaijan can be recorded in the asset of the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategists when unleashing a war against the Republic of Armenia in the future. Azerbaijan, in fact, has already extended its jurisdiction to the territory of a part of the Syunik region of the sovereign Republic of Armenia, and with the consent of the Nikol Pashinyan treacherous clique. 

Actually, the author of these lines does not have to be surprised at such a course of events, since earlier, in dozens of my articles and interviews, I cited indisputable (even from the side of Pashinyan's treacherous pack) facts confirming the truth that special services from the shores of the Potomac (CIA) and Foggy Albion (MI-6) and their Turkish military-political servants, having organized a coup d'état in Armenia in April - May 2018, they committed this crime not only with the aim of surrendering NATO Turkey and its vilayet to Azerbaijan in the Republic of Artsakh, but also at least the territory of the Syunik region of the Republic of Armenia, including the 45-kilometer Meghri section of the state border of the Republic Armenia with the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

This will allow the Turkish-Azerbaijani strategists, and therefore their curators from across the hill, to take control of the road, connecting Nakhichevan through the Syunik region with the regions of Azerbaijan bordering Armenia and Iran. 

God forbid, if such a thing happened, there is no doubt that the longed-for dream of the New Ottoman Turkish Sultan will come true. Erdogan on the implementation of the idea of ​​pan-Turanism, (fraught with a military catastrophe on a global scale), on the way of which there was an Armenian Christian civilization wedge in the Islamic arc stretching from Gibraltar through North Africa, the Middle East, Azerbaijan, Central Asia to Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ( populated by followers of Islam) of the People's Republic of China. There is no doubt that for the sake of achieving this dream, Erdogan, and now with Pakistan together, will incite Aliyev to unleash a war by Azerbaijan against Armenia.

 When mentioning Nakhichevan, dear reader, I could not help but recall the lines from the heartfelt letter of an outstanding Armenian, Honored Art Worker of the Armenian SSR, Honored Architect of the Armenian SSR, State Prize Laureate Rafael (Rafo) Israelian dated July 20, 1962, addressed to the First Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Nikita Khrushchev:

“... In the very first months, the theses of the Leninist nationality policy were solemnly proclaimed by the responsible leaders of the Soviet state and the Bolshevik Party: already on December 2, 1920, at a ceremonial meeting of the Baksovet (Baku Soviet is the supreme body of power in Baku and the Baku region - A.G.) the establishment of Soviet power in Armenia comrade. Sergo Ordzhonikidze quoted the declaration of the head of the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic comrade. N. Narimanov regarding the Armenian regions of Zangezur (Syunik region of the RA - A.G.), Nakhichevan and Nagorno-Karabakh, regions that the anti-popular government of the Musavatists tried to tear away from Armenia. "

The speech of Comrade Narimanov. Narimanov says: “Take them for yourself! Take these lands for Armenia! " The head of the Republic of Azerbaijan comes out and says: "This terrible question no longer exists!" (see G. K. Ordzhonikidze. Selected speeches and articles, 1956, pp. 139−191). 

And here is the declaration itself comrade. Narimanov dated 2 / XII 1920 on behalf of the Revolutionary Committee of Azerbaijan: “The territories of Zangezur and Nakhichevan districts are an inseparable part of Soviet Armenia. And the working peasantry of Nagorno-Karabakh is given the full right to self-determination "... (TsGA Arm. SSR, f 114, d.80, sheet 1. 

First published in the newspaper "Communist" on December 2, 1920). And on December 4, 1920, the People's Commissariat of the Soviet State headed by Lenin solemnly confirmed on behalf of the Soviet government: “On December 1, Soviet Azerbaijan voluntarily renounces the disputed provinces and declares the transfer of Zangezur, Nakhichevan, Nagorno-Karabakh to Soviet Armenia (see I. V. Stalin, Works, vol. 4, p. 414)." 

The dear reader can familiarize himself with these and other very interesting facts on this topic by reading the article under the heading "We renounce recognition: why did Nakhichevan and Nagorno-Karabakh become part of the Azerbaijan SSR?," Published on August 4, 2010 in IA REGNUM . 

I will not quote from the militant speeches of the Absheron Sultan Ilham Aliyev, who never ceases to boast of the victory of the Turkish-Azerbaijani and Syrian mercenary terrorists in the Karabakh war (September - November 2020), won, in the opinion of professional military experts, to put it mildly, from - for mediocrity, and for me - betrayal by the accomplice of the Absheron Sultan, Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Vovaevich. 

At the same time, it is outrageous that more than a dozen criminal cases have already been initiated with the accusation of Armenian patriots, who, over the past months, have conclusively asserted that there was a betrayal by the political leadership of the Republic of Armenia during the Karabakh war (September - November 2020). However, this is a topic for a separate analysis, and everything has its time. 

I am convinced that there will be an inevitable trial over those guilty of the deaths of five thousand courageous Armenian soldiers, over those on whose conscience the broken fates of more than 10 thousand invalids of the Karabakh war, the loss of housing by more than 40 thousand residents of the Hadrut region, Shushi and other settlements occupied by Azerbaijan. -Turkish military. And there is no doubt that those guilty of this atrocity against their people will be punished with the full severity of the law. 

It is no longer necessary to talk about 75% of the territory of Artsakh surrendered to the enemy, a territory, every square meter of which is stained with the blood of hundreds and thousands of Armenian patriots who died in the Nagorno-Karabakh national liberation war of 1992-1994, on whose conscience the broken fates of more than 10 thousand invalids of the Karabakh war, the loss of housing by more than 40 thousand residents of the Hadrut region, Shushi and other settlements occupied by the Azerbaijani-Turkish military clique. that those guilty of this atrocity against their people will be punished with the full severity of the law.

 I did not want to end the article on a sad note, since Providence this time turned out to be supportive of Armenia and Artsakh, the Armenian people, and there is something to write about good things. Here I would like to cite an excerpt from the article "Separatist General": Kosobokov's appointment in Artsakh caused violent indignation in Azerbaijan ", published on September 10, 2021 in the Bagramyan 26 telegram channel , as follows: 

“The appointment of General Mikhail Kosobokov to the post of commander of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Artsakh caused a hysterical reaction in Azerbaijan. The cause of Baku's fears is the official biography of Kosobokov. Mikhail Kosobokov served in almost all regions of the post-Soviet space, where there are problems of territorial affiliation. 

In particular, the general held the post of deputy commander of the Navy in the Crimea. Prior to that, from 2015 to 2017, he served as the commander of the 7th Russian military base in Abkhazia. Until recently, Mikhail Kosobokov served as Deputy Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the RF Armed Forces, located both in the North Caucasus and South Ossetia. The aforementioned circumstance, obviously, greatly alarmed the Azerbaijani political establishment, moreover, as an opposition, and the pro-government circles. 

If Azerbaijan's fears are not unfounded, then Kosobokov's appointment can be regarded as a positive message from Moscow to Yerevan, testifying to its support for the decisiveness of the Artsakh people to exist separately from the Azerbaijani regime imposed on them. The fact that Moscow perceives Artsakh as a separate state is evidenced by the recent application of the Russian Ministry of Defense for the purchase of equipment for military units in the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. As we wrote earlier, at the request of Baku and under pressure from the Azerbaijani lobby, the application was removed from the public procurement website, but the position of the RF Ministry of Defense was clearly perceived."

 Let us also note that an equally hysterical reaction in Azerbaijan was caused by the statement of the former commander of the peacekeeping forces of Russia in the Republic of Artsakh, Hero of Russia, Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov on the extension of the terms of stay of the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

So, on September 10 this year, the well-known Internet edition 1NEWS.AZ published an article by Farida Bagirova entitled “Rustam Muradov“ extended ”the terms of stay of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. Is he authorized." I will cite some excerpts from this article, namely: 

Rustam Muradov, who completed his mission on September 6 as the commander of the Russian peacekeeping forces (MS) in Karabakh, told TASS that he positively assesses the work of the Russian peacekeepers. He noted that at the moment life in Karabakh is in full swing, problematic issues are gradually being resolved. "I assess (the activities of the Russian peacekeeping mission) only positively. We are assessed by the civilian population - today life in Karabakh is in full swing." 

There are, of course, very complex issues, but the process is underway - the return of people, the solution of a number of problematic issues. Therefore, I think everything will be fine,” R. Muradov said. According to him, Russian peacekeepers will stay on the territory of Karabakh for five years after the conflict.

 "The first five years - according to an agreement signed by the heads of three states (Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - A. G.). Subsequently, a decision will be made on the further extension (stay) of the Russian peacekeeping contingent," he said. Further in the same article, Farida-kyzy, in order to impart objectivity to his writings, states: 

"During 10 months of its implementation, she (the peacekeeping mission - A.G.) was remembered mainly for humanitarian activities, Russian peacekeepers help the Armenians of Karabakh build a reservoir, accessories, bring drinking water, even take delivery (Farida-kyzy laments - A.G.)." But Azerbaijan is well aware of cases of biased or conniving attitude of peacekeepers within the framework of their immediate tasks. 

There are such facts, and they do not honor the understanding by the peacekeepers of their immediate tasks (apparently, the suppression by the peacekeepers of provocations by the Azerbaijani saboteurs on the border with Shushi and in other areas occupied by the Azerbaijani military clique of the Republic of Artsakh is now regarded by the Azerbaijani side as a “conniving attitude” - A.G.). 

Farids-kyzy's worries do not end there: “But this logical question (talking about the prolongation of the presence of the Russian MC in Nagorno-Karabakh - A.G.) can rightly be asked in Azerbaijan. As you know, paragraph 4 of the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020 clearly states: “The stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic the intention to terminate the application of this provision." 

Then on what basis does Muradov so confidently assert the extension of the stay of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh? Is it his authority to participate in the adoption of such decisions? In this regard, I would like to state with certainty that it would not be for the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation to enter the war zone between the Turkish-Azerbaijani armed forces and Syrian mercenary terrorists, on the one hand, and the Defense Army of the Republic of Artsakh, on the other hand (due to talentless, if not to say, treacherous actions on the part of individual leaders of the Republic of Armenia), a tragedy would be inevitable, when in a matter of days the population of Nagorno-Karabakh would be subjected to genocide. 

Hero of Russia, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, no doubt, was well aware of this. Undoubtedly, so was the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, when deciding to send peacekeeping forces of the RF Ministry of Defense to the war zone, being comprehensively informed about the state of affairs in the conflict zone, 

As I write these lines, a story from the recent past comes to my mind. So, at the beginning of 2018, Pope Francis, receiving Turkish President Erdogan in the Vatican, presented him with a medal as a memento, which depicted an angel of peace strangling the monster of war. The outstanding pontiff, it would seem, had a presentiment and foresaw that he would present the medal to the tempting serpent, the fallen angel, that is, the devil. The Pope's angels did not stop the tempting snake in unleashing the bloody massacre in Artsakh, it was stopped by the messengers of the angel of peace - Russian peacekeepers. 

Taking this opportunity, I would like to express my sincere gratitude and deep gratitude to Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, each of the 1960 Russian peacekeepers who are on the territory of the Republic of Artsakh saved by them, and wish peace to their families, Great Russia, which is rightfully considered a reliable guarantor the security of the Armenian people, the preservation of the independence of the two Armenian states - the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. 

Instead of an afterword 

Dear reader, I want to hope that you will not reproach me for the fact that I want to complete my article by quoting myself, more precisely, citing lines from my other article dated August 1, 2021, published by IA REGNUM under the heading "Russia is the guarantor of preservation Republic of Artsakh." Believe me, this is not at all a manifestation of political stupidity or narcissism. So, in the annotation to this article it is written:

"The geopolitical situation in the world makes the task of not the very format of declaring the belonging of a particular territory to a specific subject of international law in the form of a national state urgent, but, in my opinion, to create conditions for safe and peaceful prosperity of compactly living preserving their national identity. I see such a secure future for the Republic of Artsakh only under the protectorate of Russia."

At the same time, the information war of Azerbaijan against the Republic of Armenia, the ongoing provocations by the Absheron Sultanate on the state border of Armenia, the alternating military exercises of the Turkish-Azerbaijani-Pakistani military hawks in the border regions of Armenia and Artsakh, as close as possible to actions in a hot war, do not leave doubts that Azerbaijan is preparing the ground for the start of military aggression against the Republic of Armenia. And this war is all the more inevitable, the more persistently the collective West will escalate the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian and Belarusian-Polish-Lithuanian border. 

According to Western analysts, Russia will not wage a simultaneous war on two fronts i.e. the Western and the South Caucasus. According to their calculations, the Turkish-Azerbaijani blitzkrieg will make it possible to annex the Syunik region of the RA, if not completely, then at least an area that includes a 45-kilometer section the borders of the Meghri region of Syunik region with Iran, which will allow the Turkish-Azerbaijani hawks to cut through the Zangezur corridor so longed for by them, connecting Nakhichevan and the occupied territories of Artsakh with Azerbaijan by direct communication (road and rail). The internal political situation in Armenia and the activity of the RA National Assembly of the 8th convocation, which is completely inadequate to the current mortal threat to the existence of the Armenian statehood, contribute to the implementation of these insidious plans of the Turkish and Azerbaijani strategists. 

The way out of this extremely alarming situation is to initiate and conduct as soon as possible a nationwide referendum on the entry of the Republic of Armenia into the union state of Russia and Belarus. The alternative to this is war. 

Artashes Geghamyan is an Armenian politician. 

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